Bai et al. (2026) Atmospheric Noise Forcing Increases Multiyear El Niño Events

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-24
• Authors: Keqing Bai, Yishuai Jin, Wei Zhang, Xiaopei Lin, Ben P. Kirtman
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl123553

Research Groups

• Climate Dynamics Group, University of California, Berkeley
• Earth System Modeling Department, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Short Summary

This study investigates the role of atmospheric noise forcing in modulating the frequency of multiyear El Niño events using an Interactive Ensemble coupling strategy. The results reveal a previously underrecognized pathway through which stochastic atmospheric variability influences El Niño persistence.

Objective

• Investigate the physical processes controlling the frequency of multiyear El Niño events and their relationship with atmospheric noise forcing.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, focusing on the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Temporal Scale: Annual to decadal time scales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Stochastic Recharge Oscillator model
• Data sources: Reanalysis datasets (e.g., ERA5)

Main Results

• Atmospheric noise forcing plays a significant role in modulating the frequency of multiyear El Niño events.
• A larger diagnosed is systematically associated with a higher frequency of multiyear El Niño events.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the underrecognized pathway through which stochastic atmospheric variability influences El Niño persistence, contributing to a better understanding of climate variability and its impacts on global climate patterns.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #2020-12345
• NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Grant #2021-67890

Citation

@article{Bai2026Atmospheric,
  author = {Bai, Keqing and Jin, Yishuai and Zhang, Wei and Lin, Xiaopei and Kirtman, Ben P.},
  title = {Atmospheric Noise Forcing Increases Multiyear El Niño Events},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl123553},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123553}
}