Fernández‐Alvarez et al. (2026) The 2025–2026 Iberian Atmospheric Rivers Exhibited Moisture Transport Resembling the Early SSP5‐8.5 Climate Response

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Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-19
• Authors: José C. Fernández‐Alvarez, G. Alvarez‐Socorro, Raquel Nieto, Luís Gimeno
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl123799

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates whether extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers (LARs) over the Iberian Peninsula between October 2025 and February 2026 exhibit characteristics consistent with early high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate projections. The results indicate that these events produced moisture transport and precipitation levels that matched or exceeded those predicted under early high-emission scenarios.

Objective

• To determine if exceptional landfalling atmospheric rivers (LARs) in the Iberian Peninsula display characteristics expected under early high-emission forcing (SSP5-8.5).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Iberian Peninsula (IP) and the Subtropical Atlantic.
• Temporal Scale: October 2025 to February 2026.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), IPART (for AR identification), FLEXPART-WRF (for moisture tracking), and CESM2 (under SSP5-8.5).
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis and CESM2 climate projections.

Main Results

• Vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) magnitudes matched or locally exceeded early SSP5-8.5 projections by 10%–15%.
• Subtropical Atlantic moisture sources were 5%–20% stronger than those simulated under the early SSP5-8.5 response.
• Precipitation over Atlantic-facing sectors of the Iberian Peninsula matched or significantly exceeded (p < 0.05) early SSP5-8.5 levels.
• Mid-tropospheric trough-ridge patterns were found to enhance zonal flow and long-range moisture advection.

Contributions

• The study demonstrates that present-day extreme atmospheric river events can generate moisture transport and hydrological impacts comparable to or greater than those projected for early transient high-emission climate scenarios.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{FernándezAlvarez202620252026,
  author = {Fernández‐Alvarez, José C. and Alvarez‐Socorro, G. and Nieto, Raquel and Gimeno, Luís},
  title = {The 2025–2026 Iberian Atmospheric Rivers Exhibited Moisture Transport Resembling the Early SSP5‐8.5 Climate Response},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl123799},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123799}
}