Zhou et al. (2026) Escalating Uncertainty Under Increasing Risk in Compound Heat and Precipitation Extremes

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-29
• Authors: Zhiling Zhou, Liping Zhang, Jijun Xu, Jun Xia
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl124193

Research Groups

• Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) contributors
• University of [Institution] Climate Dynamics Group
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study investigates the uncertainty in compound heat and precipitation extremes (CHPE) using 14 CMIP6 models and two single-model initial-condition large ensembles, revealing that CHPE uncertainty is itself an emerging dimension of climate risk.

Objective

• Investigate the evolution of projection uncertainty in CHPE under different climate scenarios

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on regions with strong CHPE intensification
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (21st century) projections using CMIP6 models and large ensembles

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 14 CMIP6 models (e.g., EC-Earth, HadGEM3-GC2)
• Data sources: CMIP6 model outputs, single-model initial-condition large ensemble simulations

Main Results

• CHPE uncertainty shows a delayed transition from model-dominated to scenario-dominated uncertainty relative to single heat extremes
• Persistent precipitation-side model spread contributes to this delay
• Regions with strong CHPE intensification (Amazon, South Asia, tropical Africa) are major uncertainty hotspots
• Internal climate variability contributes more strongly to CHPE than to either constituent hazard in several regions

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the evolution of projection uncertainty in CHPE and its implications for climate adaptation
• The results highlight the importance of considering compound-event uncertainty in climate risk assessment

Funding

• CMIP6 project (EC Horizon 2020)
• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant [Award Number]
• European Research Council (ERC) grant [Award Number]

Citation

@article{Zhou2026Escalating,
  author = {Zhou, Zhiling and Zhang, Liping and Xu, Jijun and Xia, Jun},
  title = {Escalating Uncertainty Under Increasing Risk in Compound Heat and Precipitation Extremes},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl124193},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl124193}
}