Abbasian et al. (2026) Changes in Flood Frequency and Seasonality Across Midwestern U.S. Watersheds Under a Warming Climate: Insights From Convection‐Permitting Climate Simulations and Physics‐Based Hydrologic Models

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Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-14
• Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Abbasian, Daniel Benjamin Wright, Michael Notaro, Stephen J. Vavrus, Daniel James Vimont
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl124622

Research Groups

• Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study combines convection-permitting climate simulations with the WRF-Hydro model to investigate how climate warming affects flood frequency and seasonality in the Midwestern United States. The research reveals a regional shift toward more extreme warm-season, rainfall-driven floods under both simulated warming and historical records.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate warming on flood frequency and seasonality across the Midwestern United States

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Midwestern United States)
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (climate simulations) and historical (20th century)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WRF-Hydro, CONUS404 convection-permitting climate simulations
• Data sources: Historical records, satellite observations, reanalysis datasets

Main Results

• Regional shift toward more extreme warm-season, rainfall-driven floods under both simulated warming and historical records
• Local flood-frequency changes remain highly uncertain due to subregional climate variability and sampling uncertainty

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between climate warming and flood frequency and seasonality in the Midwestern United States, highlighting the importance of distinguishing broad climate-driven tendencies from uncertain local responses.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant number [insert]
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grant number [insert]

Citation

@article{Abbasian2026Changes,
  author = {Abbasian, Mohammad Sadegh and Wright, Daniel Benjamin and Notaro, Michael and Vavrus, Stephen J. and Vimont, Daniel James},
  title = {Changes in Flood Frequency and Seasonality Across Midwestern U.S. Watersheds Under a Warming Climate: Insights From Convection‐Permitting Climate Simulations and Physics‐Based Hydrologic Models},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl124622},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl124622}
}