Davenport et al. (2026) Discrepancies in Extreme Daily and Monthly Precipitation Trends Between Observations and Earth System Models

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-06
• Authors: Frances V. Davenport, Danielle Touma
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl124747

Research Groups

• Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Colorado Boulder
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study compares trends in daily and monthly extreme precipitation across multiple observational data sets and three Earth system model ensembles to understand how well models capture recent changes in regional extreme precipitation.

Objective

• Investigate the ability of Earth system models to accurately simulate changes in regional extreme precipitation

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global and regional scales, focusing on land areas
• Temporal Scale: Recent decades (1980s-present)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Three Earth system model ensembles (ESMs)
• Data sources: Multiple observational data sets, including satellite and reanalysis products

Main Results

• ESMs underestimate the magnitude of both positive and negative observed trends in daily extremes
• Many recent observed decreasing trends in monthly extreme precipitation fall outside the model distribution
• Similar results are found when comparing observed trends to those in high-resolution simulations

Contributions

• Highlights ongoing challenges in constraining the magnitude of regional extreme precipitation change, emphasizing the need for improved model performance and data assimilation techniques

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant number [insert grant number] and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under grant number [insert grant number].

Citation

@article{Davenport2026Discrepancies,
  author = {Davenport, Frances V. and Touma, Danielle},
  title = {Discrepancies in Extreme Daily and Monthly Precipitation Trends Between Observations and Earth System Models},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl124747},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl124747}
}