Trok et al. (2026) Global Emissions Since the Paris Agreement Have Intensified Europe's Recent Heatwaves

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-22
• Authors: Jared T. Trok, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Emily M Gordon, Frances V. Davenport, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl125079

Research Groups

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• University of [Unknown]

Short Summary

This study uses a generative machine-learning model to link recent greenhouse-gas emissions to changes in extreme weather events, specifically summer temperature extremes in Europe.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between cumulative anthropogenic emissions and changes in extreme weather events

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental (Europe)
• Temporal Scale: 2015-present, with a focus on recent events (2021 and June 2025)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Generative machine-learning model
• Data sources: Observed meteorological conditions

Main Results

• Strong evidence (>95% probability) that anthropogenic emissions increased the intensity of Europe's summer temperature extremes since 2021
• >99% probability that regional-mean temperature during June 2025 heatwave would have been lower (median estimate of 0.34°C) under 2015 levels of cumulative emissions

Contributions

• Provides a new approach to quantify changes in extreme weather caused by small subsets of anthropogenic emissions
• Offers strong evidence for the link between recent greenhouse-gas emissions and increased temperature extremes in Europe

Funding

• [Unknown]

Citation

@article{Trok2026Global,
  author = {Trok, Jared T. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Gordon, Emily M and Davenport, Frances V. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
  title = {Global Emissions Since the Paris Agreement Have Intensified Europe's Recent Heatwaves},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl125079},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl125079}
}