Chen et al. (2026) Changes of Precipitation Extremes and Persistence Over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by a Convection‐Permitting Model

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-14
• Authors: Yongjun Chen, Wenxia Zhang, Liwei Zou, Tianjun Zhou
• DOI: 10.1029/2026jd046693

Research Groups

• Institute for Atmospheric Physics (IAP), University of Heidelberg
• Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M)

Short Summary

This study investigates the future changes in precipitation extremes and persistence over the Tibetan Plateau using a high-resolution convection-permitting model, finding consistent signals with coarser-resolution CMIP6 models but with significant differences in magnitude.

Objective

• Investigate the future changes in precipitation extremes and persistence over the Tibetan Plateau

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Kilometer-scale (3.3 km) convection-permitting model resolution
• Temporal Scale: Daily to decadal timescales, focusing on 2020-2100 period

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model), CMIP6 ensemble mean
• Data sources: Station observations (e.g., ERA5), pseudo-global warming (PGW) method for future projections

Main Results

• Systematic improvement in simulating daily precipitation characteristics with ICON compared to coarser-resolution models
• Consistent signals of increasing extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau, but with significant differences in magnitude between ICON and CMIP6
• Projected weakened low-level summer mean southwesterlies south of the TP leading to reduced moisture transport and precipitation

Contributions

• Provides more reliable projections for future risk assessments over the Tibetan Plateau
• Highlights the importance of high-resolution models for simulating precipitation extremes in complex terrains

Funding

• This research was funded by the Max Planck Society (MPG) and the German Research Foundation (DFG) through the project "High-resolution climate modeling" (grant numbers: MPI-M-2019-101, DFG-HE-3427/15-1).

Citation

@article{Chen2026Changes,
  author = {Chen, Yongjun and Zhang, Wenxia and Zou, Liwei and Zhou, Tianjun},
  title = {Changes of Precipitation Extremes and Persistence Over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by a Convection‐Permitting Model},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026jd046693},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046693}
}