Mu et al. (2026) Convection‐Permitting Projections of Low‐Level Jets and Mesoscale Convective Systems in South America

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-21
• Authors: Ye Mu, Charles Jones, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Julia Kukulies, Andreas Franz Prein, Lulin Xue, Changhai Liu
• DOI: 10.1029/2026jd046766

Research Groups

• University of São Paulo (USP)
• National Institute for Space Research (INPE)

Short Summary

This study examines the impact of climate change on low-level jets (LLJs) and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in South America, revealing a transition toward complex hydrometeorological hazards. The results highlight thermodynamic intensification of MCS precipitation and dynamic bifurcations between the tropics and subtropics.

Objective

• Investigate the responses of LLJs and MCSs to future climate change under a 3°C warming scenario

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (South America)
• Temporal Scale: Future projections (2021-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convection-permitting model projections (CMIP6)
• Data sources: Climate reanalysis data (ERA5) and satellite observations

Main Results

• Thermodynamic intensification of MCS precipitation with maximum rainfall rates increasing by 20-50%
• Dynamic bifurcation between the tropics and subtropics, leading to changes in storm morphology and duration
• Enhancement of vertical wind shear during Central and Andes LLJ events, facilitating upscale growth of MCSs

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the complex interactions between thermodynamic and dynamic forcing in shaping future hydrometeorological hazards in South America.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering regime-specific changes in storm characteristics when assessing climate change impacts.

Funding

• Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
• Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Citation

@article{Mu2026ConvectionPermitting,
  author = {Mu, Ye and Jones, Charles and Carvalho, Leila M. V. and Kukulies, Julia and Prein, Andreas Franz and Xue, Lulin and Liu, Changhai},
  title = {Convection‐Permitting Projections of Low‐Level Jets and Mesoscale Convective Systems in South America},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026jd046766},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046766}
}