Chen et al. (2026) Atmospheric Circulation Drives Dry‐to‐Wet Abrupt Alternation in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-01
• Authors: Yufan Chen, Junguo Liu, Shuyu Zhang, Hong Wang, Haifan Liu, C. P. Liang, Deliang Chen, Mingfu Guan
• DOI: 10.1029/2026jd046922

Research Groups

• Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), China
• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, USA

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of dry-to-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin from 1961 to 2022 and identifies atmospheric circulation patterns linked to dry and wet extremes.

Objective

• Investigate the occurrence, frequency, and driving mechanisms of DWAA events in the LMRB under climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB), a transboundary region spanning across Southeast Asia.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis covers a period of 61 years, from 1961 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: None mentioned in the paper; likely based on observational data and reanalysis products.
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, and reanalysis datasets are assumed to be used for this study.

Main Results

• DWAA events occur mainly in May and June upstream and from July onward downstream.
• A decreasing trend in DWAA frequency is observed in the midstream region, contrasted by increasing occurrences downstream.
• Three circulation patterns are identified for dry extremes and four for wet extremes.
• The Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH), tropical cyclones (TCs), multi-low-pressure systems, and dual-high-pressure systems control the complexity and diversity of these patterns.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of DWAA events in the LMRB under climate change.
• The findings highlight the importance of large-scale circulation patterns in controlling dry-to-wet transitions and their implications for water security and agriculture in the region.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
• University of California, Irvine's Climate Change Research Program

Citation

@article{Chen2026Atmospheric,
  author = {Chen, Yufan and Liu, Junguo and Zhang, Shuyu and Wang, Hong and Liu, Haifan and Liang, C. P. and Chen, Deliang and Guan, Mingfu},
  title = {Atmospheric Circulation Drives Dry‐to‐Wet Abrupt Alternation in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026jd046922},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046922}
}