Feng et al. (2026) Causes of the Delayed Seasonality of Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Models

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-28
• Authors: Jiawei Feng, Jian Feng Cao, Boyang Wang, Haikun Zhao, Chao Wang
• DOI: 10.1029/2026jd046965

Research Groups

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)

Short Summary

This study investigates the seasonal transition of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Northern Hemisphere using CMIP6 models and identifies a bias in atmospheric models due to surface wind speed errors.

Objective

• Investigate the causes of slower seasonal transitions of NH TCGF in CMIP6 models

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with focus on the Northern Hemisphere oceans
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal transition from July-September (peak season) to October-December (late season)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Uncoupled and coupled CMIP6 models
• Data sources: Reanalysis data

Main Results

• Atmospheric models are biased in surface wind speed over tropical oceans, leading to a slower seasonal transition of NH TCGF.
• Latent heat flux bias dominates the net atmospheric energy transfer from July-September to October-December.

Contributions

• Provides an energetic perspective on TCGF seasonality and highlights the importance of improving lower-boundary physics in models.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant number [insert grant number].

Citation

@article{Feng2026Causes,
  author = {Feng, Jiawei and Cao, Jian Feng and Wang, Boyang and Zhao, Haikun and Wang, Chao},
  title = {Causes of the Delayed Seasonality of Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Models},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026jd046965},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd046965}
}