He et al. (2026) Sources of Potential Predictability for July–August 2025 Extreme Precipitation Anomalies Over Northern China: Roles of the Western Pacific and North Atlantic–Barents–Kara Sea Sectors

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-28
• Authors: Xinyu He, Bian He, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Chen Sheng, Bin Tang, Natalia Victorovna Vazaeva
• DOI: 10.1029/2026jd047254

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

Short Summary

This study identifies two distinct sources of predictability for extreme precipitation anomalies over northern China in July and August 2025, improving the prediction by separating S2S models into high-skill and low-skill groups.

Objective

• Investigate the remote signals contributing to the predictability of persistent extreme precipitation over northern China during the summer months.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern China (NC)
• Temporal Scale: July and August 2025

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models
• Data sources: Nudging experiments, satellite observations, reanalysis data

Main Results

• The predictability of extreme precipitation anomalies over NC in July was mainly linked to tropical forcing over the western Pacific.
• The August predictability was primarily associated with midlatitude wave-train activity from the North Atlantic and Barents-Kara Seas.
• High-skill models better captured typhoon-induced convection over the subtropical western Pacific in July.
• Eastward-propagating midlatitude wave trains from the North Atlantic and Barents-Kara Seas enhanced energy conversion over NC in August.

Contributions

• This study reveals two distinct sources of predictability for extreme precipitation anomalies over northern China, improving our understanding of remote signals contributing to S2S prediction models.

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507205)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41875051 and 41505044)

Citation

@article{He2026Sources,
  author = {He, Xinyu and He, Bian and Liu, Yimin and Wu, Guoxiong and Sheng, Chen and Tang, Bin and Vazaeva, Natalia Victorovna},
  title = {Sources of Potential Predictability for July–August 2025 Extreme Precipitation Anomalies Over Northern China: Roles of the Western Pacific and North Atlantic–Barents–Kara Sea Sectors},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026jd047254},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd047254}
}