Fan et al. (2026) Sensitivity of NWP Over the Tibetan Plateau to Soil Moisture Uncertainties in Summer

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-28
• Authors: Peng Fan, Yang Yang, Xingwen Jiang, Guangjing Liu, Jian Li, Zhiwei Heng, Yong Feng, Dan Lin
• DOI: 10.1029/2026jd047335

Research Groups

• Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of soil moisture (SM) uncertainties on numerical weather prediction (NWP) over the Tibetan Plateau, demonstrating significant sensitivity to SM errors and biases. The research highlights the need for improved accuracy in SM products to enhance NWP performance.

Objective

• Investigate the effect of SM uncertainties on surface energy exchange and boundary layer processes over the Tibetan Plateau using the WRF model.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on the Tibetan Plateau.
• Temporal Scale: Summer season (JJA 2023).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
• Data sources: ERA5 and GFS soil moisture data.

Main Results

• SM uncertainties significantly alter the surface energy budget, generating differences in sensible and latent heat fluxes exceeding 300 W m−2.
• The "dry soil-warm, wet soil-cool" effect on surface air temperature (differences up to 8°C) and modified local winds (up to 10 m/s).
• SM errors/biases modify precipitation patterns, reducing it in most central/northeastern areas and increasing it in the southwest.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the sensitivity of NWP to SM uncertainties over the Tibetan Plateau, underscoring the need for improved accuracy in SM products. The research highlights the importance of considering SM errors and biases in regional climate modeling and prediction.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91837204)
• National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFA0603800)

Citation

@article{Fan2026Sensitivity,
  author = {Fan, Peng and Yang, Yang and Jiang, Xingwen and Liu, Guangjing and Li, Jian and Heng, Zhiwei and Feng, Yong and Lin, Dan},
  title = {Sensitivity of NWP Over the Tibetan Plateau to Soil Moisture Uncertainties in Summer},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026jd047335},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd047335}
}