Wang et al. (2026) Thermodynamic Moistening and Decadal Circulation Modulation of the Recent Increase in Precipitation Extremes Over the Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-11-05
• Authors: Haoyu Wang, Yujie Wang, Lianchun Song, Xin-Zhong Liang
• DOI: 10.1029/2026jd048228

Research Groups

The specific research groups, labs, or departments involved are not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the drivers of intensified summer extreme precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, finding that thermodynamic moistening and decadal circulation modulation jointly explain the observed increase, with atmospheric circulation being the largest contributor to the recent surge.

Objective

• To investigate the interplay among thermodynamic moistening, atmospheric circulation, and decadal ocean variability in driving the intensification of summer precipitation extremes over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, North China.
• Temporal Scale: Early twenty-first century (2001–2025), with specific periods P1 (2001–2011) and P2 (2016–2025), using daily observations.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Grouped Shapley/LMG model.
• Data sources: Daily observations.

Main Results

• Extreme precipitation has intensified over North China during the early twenty-first century, with multiple extreme indices showing a coherent upward shift around 2015/2016.
• The extreme precipitation amount (R95p) increased by nearly 50% from the 2001–2011 period (P1) to the 2016–2025 period (P2).
• Regional and lower-tropospheric warming led to increased moisture content, saturation vapor pressure, and convective instability, establishing more favorable thermodynamic conditions.
• These conditions coincided with strengthened monsoon moisture transport, low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, and deep ascent, associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high, South Asian high, and East Asian westerly jet.
• A grouped Shapley/LMG model explains 58.8% of the interannual R95p variance during 2001–2025.
• Atmospheric circulation and decadal ocean variability contribute 30.7% and 31.5%, respectively, to the model-explained variance.
• For the P1-to-P2 increase, atmospheric circulation has the largest central contribution (53.5%), compared with thermodynamic moistening (14.8%), moisture transport (17.0%), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/AMO-related decadal ocean variability (14.7%).
• Thermodynamic moistening and decadal circulation modulation jointly explain the observed R95p increase.

Contributions

• Provides a diagnostic explanation for the intensification of summer extreme precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the early twenty-first century.
• Quantifies the relative contributions of thermodynamic moistening, atmospheric circulation, and decadal ocean variability to the observed increase in extreme precipitation, highlighting the dominant role of atmospheric circulation in the recent surge.
• Utilizes a grouped Shapley/LMG model to disentangle the complex interplay of these factors.

Funding

Funding information is not provided in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Wang2026Thermodynamic,
  author = {Wang, Haoyu and Wang, Yujie and Song, Lianchun and Liang, Xin-Zhong},
  title = {Thermodynamic Moistening and Decadal Circulation Modulation of the Recent Increase in Precipitation Extremes Over the Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026jd048228},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jd048228}
}