Gurgel et al. (2026) A Framework to Assess Fine‐Resolution Land Use Implications From Global and Regional Human‐Driven Decisions: MIT IGSM‐Demeter

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Angelo Gurgel, Kanishka B. Narayan, John M. Reilly, Xiang Gao, Courtney Adam Schlosser, Jennifer Morris, Sergey Paltsev, Chris Vernon
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ms005896

Research Groups

• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
• Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Columbia University

Short Summary

This study integrates a human-system model with an open-source downscaling model to project land-use changes at finer spatial resolutions, capturing regional to local scale variations. The research finds that global drivers significantly influence land-use projections, particularly under scenarios of economic growth, population increases, and climate impacts.

Objective

• Investigate the interplay between natural and human systems in driving future land use transitions at global, regional, and local scales.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global to local scale (regional to urban areas)
• Temporal Scale: 21st century projections under various global stressors

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Human-system model (integrated with open-source downscaling model)
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, reanalysis data for land use characterization

Main Results

• Land-use transitions intensify toward pasture and grazing land under scenarios associated with higher economic growth, population increases, and climate impacts.
• Low-pressure scenarios reduce overall transitions, favoring stability in land use patterns.
• Large heterogeneity exists within and across alternative scenarios and geographies due to differences in socio-economic responses and land characteristics.

Contributions

• This study demonstrates the importance of integrating human-system models with downscaling models for projecting land-use changes at regional and local scales.
• The framework highlights the relevance of global drivers on land-use projections, providing insights into the interplay between natural and human systems.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant # 2020-123456
• NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program (NTHP) Award # NNX16AQ65G

Citation

@article{Gurgel2026Framework,
  author = {Gurgel, Angelo and Narayan, Kanishka B. and Reilly, John M. and Gao, Xiang and Schlosser, Courtney Adam and Morris, Jennifer and Paltsev, Sergey and Vernon, Chris},
  title = {A Framework to Assess Fine‐Resolution Land Use Implications From Global and Regional Human‐Driven Decisions: MIT IGSM‐Demeter},
  journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ms005896},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ms005896}
}