Su et al. (2026) Higher Vulnerability But Faster Recovery in Planted Than Natural Forests During the 2022 Compound Drought–Heatwave in China's Yangtze River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Yong Zhong Su, Wenzhi Wang, Wei Zhao, Zhehong Wu, Lingzhuo Luo, Li J, Yushuo Zhang, Shouqin Sun
• DOI: 10.1029/2026wr044482

Research Groups

• Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling
• State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology

Short Summary

This study investigates the resilience of planted forests (PFs) and natural forests (NFs) to compound drought and heatwave events in the Yangtze River Basin. The research reveals a resistance-recovery trade-off between PFs and NFs, with NFs exhibiting stronger resistance but slower recovery.

Objective

• Investigate the responses of PFs and NFs to compound drought and heatwave events

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Grid-based analysis across the Yangtze River Basin in China
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of data from 2022, a year with an unprecedented CDHW event, and comparison with preceding years

Methodology and Data

• Models used: XGBoost machine learning algorithm coupled with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis
• Data sources: Satellite-derived kernel-normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI), gross primary productivity (GPP), and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (GOSIF)

Main Results

• PFs experienced larger declines than NFs in kNDVI and GPP during the CDHW event year, but recovered more rapidly in the following year
• NFs showed weaker declines and faster recovery in more than 70% of grids for both kNDVI and GPP
• Canopy height differences were the strongest predictors of recovery divergence between PFs and NFs

Contributions

• Provides new empirical evidence on the complementary roles of NFs and PFs in ecosystem stability and recovery under CDHW conditions
• Offers critical implications for water resource management under projected intensification of CDHWs

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91837102)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Research Program (Grant No. XDA20060301)

Citation

@article{Su2026Higher,
  author = {Su, Yong Zhong and Wang, Wenzhi and Zhao, Wei and Wu, Zhehong and Luo, Lingzhuo and J, Li and Zhang, Yushuo and Sun, Shouqin},
  title = {Higher Vulnerability But Faster Recovery in Planted Than Natural Forests During the 2022 Compound Drought–Heatwave in China's Yangtze River Basin},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026wr044482},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026wr044482}
}