Dinneen (2026) Why are El Niños getting stronger? 1000-year-coral record points to climate change

Identification

• Journal: Nature
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-27
• Authors: James Dinneen
• DOI: 10.1038/d41586-026-02717-9

Research Groups

• University of Michigan (Ann Arbor)
• University of Southern California (Los Angeles)
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Short Summary

This study utilizes a 1,000-year coral proxy record from the Galapagos Islands to demonstrate that human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of strong El Niño events.

Objective

• To investigate whether human-caused climate change has boosted the intensity and frequency of El Niño events by reconstructing sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific Ocean over the last millennium.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (specifically the Galapagos Islands).
• Temporal Scale: 1,000 years (pre-industrial period) through the present.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models (used for comparison and projection).
• Data sources: Proxy measurements from coral skeletons collected from the Galapagos Islands to reconstruct historical sea surface temperatures.

Main Results

• The frequency of strong El Niño events in the past century is higher than at any point in the preceding 1,000 years.
• The average amplitude of the swing from cold to warm conditions between 1990 and 2010 increased by 36.5% compared to the 1,000 years prior to 1850.
• The same amplitude increased by 16% relative to the 1851–1982 period.
• These findings align with observed trends and climate model projections, suggesting a direct link between anthropogenic warming and ENSO intensification.

Contributions

• Provides a rare, high-resolution long-term temperature record from the "heart of El Niño" (the eastern Pacific), filling a critical gap in palaeoclimatological data.
• Offers strong empirical evidence that human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are affecting the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dinneen2026Why,
  author = {Dinneen, James},
  title = {Why are El Niños getting stronger? 1000-year-coral record points to climate change},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/d41586-026-02717-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-02717-9}
}