Liang et al. (2026) Anthropogenically-driven escalating impact of soil-based compound dry-hot extremes on vegetation productivity

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-03
• Authors: Yani Liang, Jun Wang, Zengchao Hao, Huanjiong Wang, Huijuan Cui, Quansheng Ge
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-68878-3

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study reveals that soil-based compound dry-hot extremes (CDHEs) have more severe adverse impacts on vegetation productivity in China than meteorological CDHEs. Their frequency and coverage area significantly increased from 1980-2017 primarily due to anthropogenic soil warming, and are projected to escalate further under high-emission scenarios, threatening terrestrial carbon sinks.

Objective

• To assess the impacts of soil-based compound dry-hot extremes (CDHEs) on terrestrial vegetation productivity in China and compare these impacts with those of meteorological CDHEs.
• To develop an analytical framework for quantitative attribution of observed changes in soil-based CDHE frequency and spatial coverage, isolating the individual contributions of anthropogenically-driven changes in soil temperature and moisture.
• To investigate future changes in soil-based CDHE risks across different land cover types in China and estimate the associated potential impacts on China’s terrestrial vegetation gross primary production.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland China, analyzed on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Historical analysis of CDHEs: 1980–2017.
  • Vegetation productivity impact analysis: 2001–2017 (common overlapping period of datasets).
  • Historical baseline for percentile calculations and projections: 1981–2010.
  • Future projections: Mid-twenty-first century (up to 2070) and end of twenty-first century (2071–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • MiCASA model (for Net Primary Production, NPP).
  • 9 CMIP6 climate models (for monthly soil temperature and moisture from historical ALL and NAT simulations for attribution analysis).
  • MPI-GE-CMIP6 (Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble with CMIP6 forcing, 50 ensemble members, for future projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5).
• Data sources:
  • Soil Data:
    • Homogenized, gridded daily surface soil temperature observations (top 10 cm) for China (1980–2017, 0.25° resolution).
    • GLEAM4 (Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model) daily surface soil moisture (top 10 cm), actual evaporation, potential evaporation, and sensible heat flux (1980–2017, 0.1° resolution).
  • Climate Data:
    • CN05.1 high-resolution, gridded daily climate observations (relative humidity, surface air temperature, precipitation) for China (1980–2017, 0.25° resolution).
    • Global multi-timescale daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) dataset (5, 30, 90, and 180 days) (1982–2021, 0.25° resolution).
    • ERA5 reanalysis data (monthly 500-hPa geopotential, zonal wind, and meridional wind).
    • Mauna Loa Observatory monthly mean atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations.
  • Vegetation Productivity Data:
    • Global daily Gross Primary Production (GPP) estimates (FLUXNET-based, MODIS, 0.05° resolution).
    • Satellite-retrieved global daily Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) (OCO-2, MODIS, 0.05° resolution).
    • Global daily Net Primary Production (NPP) from MiCASA model (0.1° resolution).
  • Land Cover Data:
    • China’s annual land cover distributions (CLCD) (30 m resolution, 2018 data used for projections).

Main Results

• Soil-based CDHEs exert more severe adverse impacts on vegetation productivity in China than meteorological CDHEs, primarily through soil dryness. The most negative GPP and SIF anomalies observed during soil-based CDHEs were −0.186 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ and −0.013 mW m⁻² nm⁻¹ sr⁻¹, respectively.
• From 1980 to 2017, the annual mean frequency of soil-based CDHEs in China increased by 3.0 days, and their spatial coverage area increased by 1.419 × 10⁶ km². The most pronounced increases occurred in northern China, the Central Plains, and parts of southwestern China.
• The observed increases in soil-based CDHE frequency and coverage area are predominantly driven by anthropogenic soil warming, which increased frequency by 5.1 days and coverage area by 1.953 × 10⁶ km² over the past four decades. Anthropogenic changes in soil moisture had a minor reducing effect, and nonlinear interactions further decreased frequency and coverage.
• Under a fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP5-8.5), the mean frequency of soil-based CDHEs in China is projected to increase by 13.3 days by the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) relative to the 1981–2010 baseline.
• This projected increase under SSP5-8.5 could reduce China’s terrestrial vegetation gross primary production by approximately 0.025 Pg C a⁻¹ by the end of the century, deteriorating from −0.009 Pg C a⁻¹ over 1981–2010. Croplands, forests, and shrubs are projected to face substantially heightened risks.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive assessment of the impacts and evolving risks of soil-based compound dry-hot extremes (CDHEs) on vegetation productivity in China, distinguishing them from meteorological CDHEs.
• Highlights that traditional meteorological-based assessments may overlook and potentially underestimate the escalating ecological risks posed by soil-based CDHEs.
• Develops an analytical framework to quantitatively attribute observed changes in soil-based CDHEs to individual contributions of anthropogenically-driven changes in soil temperature and moisture.
• Identifies anthropogenic soil warming as the dominant driver of the observed surge in soil-based CDHEs in China.
• Projects future increases in soil-based CDHEs under different emission scenarios and quantifies their potential impacts on China's terrestrial carbon sinks, emphasizing the co-benefits of achieving net-zero carbon emissions.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42522102, 42275040)
• Programme of Kezhen-Bingwei Excellent Young Scientists of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2022RC006)

Citation

@article{Liang2026Anthropogenicallydriven,
  author = {Liang, Yani and Wang, Jun and Hao, Zengchao and Wang, Huanjiong and Cui, Huijuan and Ge, Quansheng},
  title = {Anthropogenically-driven escalating impact of soil-based compound dry-hot extremes on vegetation productivity},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-68878-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68878-3}
}