Deng et al. (2026) Global stalled tropical cyclones in a changing climate

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-30
• Authors: Zifeng Deng, Gabriele Villarini, W. Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Zhaoli Wang
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-71320-3

Research Groups

• School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
• High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
• Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
• Pazhou Lab, Guangzhou, China

Short Summary

This study globally analyzes tropical cyclone (TC) stalling behavior and its response to climate warming, finding a distinct hemispheric asymmetry where Southern Hemisphere basins are more prone to stalling. While a warming climate reduces the global probability of TC stalling occurrence, it significantly increases the daily rainfall associated with these storms, particularly over land and nearshore regions.

Objective

• To provide a comprehensive global analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) stalling and its response to climate warming, addressing the limited understanding of this phenomenon.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with specific analysis of Northern and Southern Hemisphere basins, and land/nearshore regions.
• Temporal Scale: Historical observational periods and future projections under climate warming scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Climate model simulations (e.g., GFDL atmospheric model, GFDL HiRAM)
  • XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) machine learning model
• Data sources:
  • Observational data: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS v04) from NOAA.
  • Precipitation data: Multi-Source Weighted-ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) from GloH2O.
  • Reanalysis data: ERA5 global reanalysis.
  • Terrain Elevation Data: Global Multi-Resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010).
  • Sea Surface Temperature: HadISST (Historical Sea Surface Temperature).
  • Other data: Zenodo database (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18954765).

Main Results

• A distinct hemispheric asymmetry exists, with tropical cyclone basins in the Southern Hemisphere being more prone to stalling than those in the Northern Hemisphere.
• A warming climate is projected to reduce the global probability of tropical cyclone stalling occurrence.
• Despite a reduced occurrence probability, a warming climate significantly increases the daily rainfall produced by stalled tropical cyclones, especially over land and nearshore regions.
• The main drivers for tropical cyclone stalling vary across different basins but are generally influenced by the steering wind vector (both magnitude and direction) and the tropical cyclone's location.
• Changes in the probability of tropical cyclone stalling under climate warming are primarily affected by alterations in the probability of tropical cyclones encountering a weak steering flow.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive global analysis of tropical cyclone stalling behavior and its response to climate warming, addressing a significant gap in current understanding.
• Identifies and quantifies a distinct hemispheric asymmetry in tropical cyclone stalling probability.
• Reveals the contrasting impacts of climate warming on stalling occurrence (decrease) versus associated rainfall intensity (increase), particularly over vulnerable land and nearshore areas.

Funding

• China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2025M783187)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (52539005, 52379010)
• Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2023B1515020087)
• China Scholarship Council

Citation

@article{Deng2026Global,
  author = {Deng, Zifeng and Villarini, Gabriele and Yang, W. and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Wang, Zhaoli},
  title = {Global stalled tropical cyclones in a changing climate},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-71320-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71320-3}
}