Dai et al. (2026) Stratospheric impacts on Eurasian soil moisture on subseasonal timescales

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-08
• Authors: Ying Jie Dai, Peter B. Hitchcock, Flavio Lehner, Suvarna Sanjeev Fadnavis
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-75786-z

Research Groups

• Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
• Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune, India.

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on Eurasian soil moisture on subseasonal timescales. The results show a robust dipolar soil moisture response to SSWs, characterized by wetter conditions over the Iberian Peninsula and drier conditions over Iran-Pak-NI.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and Eurasian soil moisture on subseasonal timescales.
• Examine the role of precipitation and temperature anomalies in shaping soil moisture responses to SSWs.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental-scale analysis over Eurasia, with a focus on the Iberian Peninsula and Iran-Pak-NI regions.
• Temporal Scale: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales, with a focus on the two months following SSW onset.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 reanalysis fields, GLDAS-2.0 surface and root-zone soil moisture data, and AMSR-derived surface soil moisture data.
• Data sources: Reanalysis, land surface model simulations, and satellite observations.

Main Results

• A robust dipolar soil moisture response to SSWs is identified, with wetter conditions over the Iberian Peninsula and drier conditions over Iran-Pak-NI.
• Enhanced precipitation drives the wet anomalies over Iberia, while anomalous near-surface warming drives drying from the Iranian Plateau to northern India.
• The persistence of root-zone soil moisture anomalies in Iran-Pak-NI is found to be strong, with negative anomalies extending well before SSW onset.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between stratospheric variability and land surface hydroclimate on subseasonal timescales.
• The findings highlight the potential importance of incorporating stratospheric precursors into forecasting systems for improving S2S prediction of hydroclimatic conditions in the Iran-Pak-NI region.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant number [insert grant number].
• Additional funding was provided by the Cornell University Climate Change Research Program.

Citation

@article{Dai2026Stratospheric,
  author = {Dai, Ying Jie and Hitchcock, Peter B. and Lehner, Flavio and Fadnavis, Suvarna Sanjeev},
  title = {Stratospheric impacts on Eurasian soil moisture on subseasonal timescales},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-75786-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75786-z}
}