Zhao et al. (2026) Greenhouse warming exacerbates El Niño-induced Indian monsoon droughts

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-30
• Authors: Yutong Zhao, Tao Wang, Chaoyi Xu, Xichen Li, Shilong L. Piao, Tandong Yao
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-76049-7

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Institute of Ocean Research, School of Physics, Peking University
• Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University

Short Summary

This study reveals that greenhouse warming strengthens the inverse relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), contrary to previous reports. The previously reported weakening was found to be a statistical artefact caused by two unusual events in 1983 and 1997.

Objective

• Investigate the interannual relationship between ENSO and ISMR under current and future greenhouse warming conditions.
• Reconcile contradictory research findings on the weakening of the ENSO-ISMR relationship.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on the Indian subcontinent and the Indo-Pacific region.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1902-2023) and future projections (2015-2099).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
• Data sources: Observations from the Indian Meteorological Department, Climatic Research Unit Time Series dataset, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre dataset, and reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• The ENSO-ISMR relationship remains robust in historical observations and strengthens under greenhouse warming.
• Greenhouse warming intensifies the inverse ENSO-ISMR relationship by 35-55% compared to the historical period (1963-2023).
• The projected change in ENSO-ISMR sensitivity is strongly correlated with dynamically driven Walker circulation changes.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the interannual relationship between ENSO and ISMR under current and future greenhouse warming conditions.
• The findings reconcile previous contradictory research findings on the weakening of the ENSO-ISMR relationship.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41930323)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA19040201)
• CAS Youth Innovation Promotion Association (Grant No. 2018030)

Citation

@article{Zhao2026Greenhouse,
  author = {Zhao, Yutong and Wang, Tao and Xu, Chaoyi and Li, Xichen and Piao, Shilong L. and Yao, Tandong},
  title = {Greenhouse warming exacerbates El Niño-induced Indian monsoon droughts},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-76049-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76049-7}
}