Ding et al. (2026) Drought development characteristics modulate global dry–wet abrupt alternation through distinct land–atmosphere feedbacks

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-03
• Authors: Yiding Ding, Ali Levent Yağcı, Haishen Lv, Yonghua Zhu, Yiling Yao
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77272-y

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
• Geomatics Engineering Department, Gebze Technical University, Kocaeli, Türkiye.
• Engineer school, Qinghai Institute of Technology, Xining, China.
• College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.

Short Summary

This study investigates the global distribution and characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events, revealing that antecedent drought development modulates subsequent precipitation through distinct land-atmosphere feedbacks. The research highlights the importance of considering drought development characteristics in predicting extreme precipitation events.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between antecedent drought development and subsequent precipitation in DWAA events.
• Examine the global distribution and characteristics of DWAA events.
• Identify the key factors contributing to DWAA transitions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on 26 IPCC-SREX regions.
• Temporal Scale: 1951-2020, using ERA5 data at pentad resolution.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5, GLDAS-CLSM, GLDAS-Noah, MERRA-2.
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• The global distribution of DWAA events is characterized by hotspots in climate transition zones and mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
• Antecedent drought development characteristics contribute 25.7% to the predictive information distinguishing droughts with and without subsequent extreme precipitation.
• Rapid and intense soil-moisture decline is associated with earlier, more convective precipitation, while prolonged and severe drought development is associated with delayed, more stratiform precipitation.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive understanding of DWAA events at a global scale, highlighting the importance of considering antecedent drought development characteristics in predicting extreme precipitation events.
• The research identifies distinct land-atmosphere feedbacks that modulate DWAA transitions, providing insights into the complex mechanisms driving these events.

Funding

• State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention (Hohai University).
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51979213).

Citation

@article{Ding2026Drought,
  author = {Ding, Yiding and Yağcı, Ali Levent and Lv, Haishen and Zhu, Yonghua and Yao, Yiling},
  title = {Drought development characteristics modulate global dry–wet abrupt alternation through distinct land–atmosphere feedbacks},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-77272-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-77272-y}
}