Chen et al. (2026) Nighttime warming dominates the thermal evolution of lakes across China

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-28
• Authors: Rixiang Chen, Senlin Zhu, Kun Yang, Xingfang Pei, Long Chen, Anlin Li, Dingpu Li, Guanjun Liu, Yi Luo, Jinming Hu, Richard Iestyn Woolway
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-78114-7

Research Groups

Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China. College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China. GIS Technology Research Center of Resource and Environment in Western China, Ministry of Education, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China. School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Bangor, Wales.

Short Summary

This study reveals the diurnal asymmetric warming pattern of lake surface water temperature across China from 2001 to 2025. Nighttime warming dominates the thermal evolution of lakes nationwide, with a significant decline in the diurnal temperature range.

Objective

• Investigate the large-scale patterns and drivers of diurnal asymmetric warming in Chinese lakes.
• Quantify the differences between daytime and nighttime lake surface water temperature (LSWT) trends across China.
• Disentangle the relative contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and lake-specific factors to this asymmetric warming.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 613 representative lakes across China spanning strong climatic and environmental gradients.
• Temporal Scale: 25 years (2001-2025).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: XGBoost machine learning framework combined with SHAP attribution analysis.
• Data sources: MOD11A1 Daily Land Surface Temperature product.

Main Results

• Nighttime LSWT increased significantly at +0.34 °C decade−1, whereas daytime temperatures showed a cooling trend (−0.24 °C decade−1).
• The diurnal temperature range declined significantly at −0.58 °C decade−1.
• 84.01% of lakes exhibited nighttime-dominant warming.

Contributions

• This study provides insights into the thermodynamic responses of lakes to climate change and adds to the growing understanding of climate impacts on inland waters.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering diurnal asymmetric warming in lake thermal evolution and its ecological implications.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41661144003).
• Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. QYZDY-SSW-DQC011).

Citation

@article{Chen2026Nighttime,
  author = {Chen, Rixiang and Zhu, Senlin and Yang, Kun and Pei, Xingfang and Chen, Long and Li, Anlin and Li, Dingpu and Liu, Guanjun and Luo, Yi and Hu, Jinming and Woolway, Richard Iestyn},
  title = {Nighttime warming dominates the thermal evolution of lakes across China},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-78114-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78114-7}
}