Wei et al. (2026) Anthropogenic aerosol reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a changing climate

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-06
• Authors: Jia Wei, Shuo Wang, Weiguang Wang, Jason A. Otkin, Diego G. Miralles, Amir AghaKouchak
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-78230-4

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Land Surveying and Geospatial Science, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• Otto Poon Research Institute for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Research Institute for Land and Space, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
• Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
• Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab (H-CEL), Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
• United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, Richmond Hill, ON, Canada

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of aerosol reduction on flash drought onset in a changing climate. The results show that lower aerosol levels contribute to faster flash drought onset, particularly in regions with severe soil moisture deficits.

Objective

• Investigate the influence of recent aerosol reductions on flash drought onset and underlying mechanisms

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale, focusing on regional variations
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1990–2019) and future projection (2070–2099)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-source observations and large-ensemble climate simulations
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, reanalysis data

Main Results

• Lower aerosol levels are linked to severe soil moisture deficits and faster flash drought onset
• Aerosols have long acted to dampen flash drought development; however, their reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a warming climate
• The area at higher risk of flash drought acceleration in aerosol-forced simulations is projected to increase by 11.7% during 2070–2099 relative to the historical period

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the impact of aerosol reduction on flash drought onset and its underlying mechanisms, contributing to a better understanding of the complex relationships between climate change, aerosols, and extreme events.

Funding

• Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (project no. PolyU/RGC 15232023)
• The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (project no. P0052737)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42307117)
• Hong Kong Scholars Program (XJ2024046)
• European Research Council under grant agreement number 101088405 (HEAT)

Citation

@article{Wei2026Anthropogenic,
  author = {Wei, Jia and Wang, Shuo and Wang, Weiguang and Otkin, Jason A. and Miralles, Diego G. and AghaKouchak, Amir},
  title = {Anthropogenic aerosol reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a changing climate},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-78230-4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78230-4}
}