Guan et al. (2026) Weak self-induced cooling of tropical cyclones amid fast sea surface warming

Identification

• Journal: Nature Geoscience
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-08
• Authors: Shoude Guan, Mengya Huang, Wenju Cai, Z. Zhang, I.-I. Lin, Hyunsook Kim, Lei Zhou, Xiaopei Lin, Zhao Xu, Fei-Fei Jin, Wei Mei, Qian Wang, Chun Zhou, Ze Meng, Jiwei Tian, Wei Zhao
• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01879-x

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography and Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES)/Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Information of Hainan Province, Sanya Oceanographic Institution/Academy of Future Ocean, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
• SANYA Oceanographic Laboratory, Sanya, China.
• Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao, China.
• Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
• State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China.
• State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
• Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA.
• State Key Laboratory of Submarine Geoscience and School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA.
• Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
• National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
• Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China.

Short Summary

This study quantifies storm-local sea surface temperature (SST) trends and tropical cyclone (TC)-induced inner-core cooling using global drifter data from 1992 to 2021. It finds that storm-local SSTs are warming at twice the average rate of TC-active regions, and TC-induced inner-core cooling is significantly weaker than previous satellite estimates and overestimated by climate models, suggesting current projections may underestimate major TC strength and impacts.

Objective

• To quantify the long-term trend of storm-local sea surface temperature (SST) directly beneath tropical cyclones (TCs) and the magnitude of synoptic TC-induced inner-core SST cooling using global surface drifter data.
• To provide observational benchmarks for evaluating and improving coupled climate models and TC prediction systems, particularly regarding their simulation of TC intensity and ocean feedback.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global oceans, focusing on tropical cyclone-active regions and storm-local areas (within 500 km of TC centers) and inner-core areas (within 100 km of TC centers).
• Temporal Scale: 1992–2021 for long-term trends; synoptic timescales (5 days before to 5 days after TC passage) for cooling characterization.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) experiments (CMCC-CM2, CNRM-CM6-1, EC-Earth3P, ECMWF-IFS, HadGEM3-GC31).
  • Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modelling system (WRF and ROMS components).
• Data sources:
  • Global surface drifter data (Global Drifter Program): Over 32,000 storm-local SST and cooling observations for Category 1–5 TCs (1992–2021), 6-hourly.
  • International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database: Global TC best-track data (1992–2021), 6-hourly TC location and intensity (1-minute maximum wind speeds).
  • Advanced Dvorak Technique Hurricane Satellite (ADT-HURSAT) dataset: Homogenized TC intensity trend.
  • Microwave satellite optimally interpolated SST data (Remote Sensing Systems): Daily, ~25 km resolution (1998–2021).
  • Moored buoys and floats (TAO/TRITON, PIRATA, RAMA, NDBC, G2, KEO, Bailong): Independent validation of inner-core SST cooling.
  • Ocean Reanalysis System 5 (ORAS5), ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) datasets: Monthly SST for TC-active regions.
  • Atmospheric sounding data (temperature, humidity, pressure) for Potential Intensity calculations.

Main Results

• Storm-local SSTs are warming at a rate of 0.29 ± 0.07 °C per decade (1992–2021), which is approximately twice the average warming rate in TC-active regions (0.13–0.19 ± 0.04 °C per decade).
• The TC-induced inner-core SST cooling (within 100 km of TC centers) measured by drifters is −0.68 ± 0.04 °C.
• Microwave satellite observations substantially overestimate inner-core SST cooling, reporting an average of −1.05 ± 0.06 °C, representing a cold bias of −0.37 ± 0.04 °C (55%) compared to drifter data.
• State-of-the-art climate models (CMIP6 HighResMIP) also overestimate inner-core SST cooling (global average of −1.38 ± 0.02 °C, a cold bias of −0.70 ± 0.10 °C or 103%) while concurrently underestimating TC intensity (by 10.53 ± 0.26 m s−1).
• Reducing the inner-core SST cooling in a coupled modeling system (COAWST) from −1.17 ± 0.04 °C to −0.70 ± 0.03 °C led to a 36% reduction in the average TC intensity underestimation (from −6.69 ± 1.15 m s−1 to −4.30 ± 1.17 m s−1).
• Observed TC intensity is increasing at 0.58 ± 0.40 m s−1 per decade, consistent with a Potential Intensity trend of 1.20 ± 0.76 m s−1 per decade calculated based on storm-local SST.

Contributions

• Provides the first global, observation-based quantification of storm-local SST warming trends and TC-induced inner-core cooling using extensive drifter data.
• Establishes fundamental observational benchmarks for evaluating and improving the representation of ocean-atmosphere coupling in coupled climate models and TC prediction systems.
• Reveals a significant systematic cold bias in microwave satellite observations of inner-core SST cooling, cautioning against their direct use for this specific metric.
• Demonstrates that the overestimation of inner-core SST cooling in climate models likely contributes to their underestimation of TC intensity, suggesting that current projections may underestimate the strength, frequency, and associated risks of major tropical cyclones under global warming.
• Offers observational evidence that TCs are increasingly fueled by greenhouse warming, as storm-local SSTs are warming faster than the mean warming in TC-active regions.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 92258301)
• National Key Research and Development Program of China (grants numbers 2023YFF0805200 and 2022YFC3104304)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 42476029)

Citation

@article{Guan2026Weak,
  author = {Guan, Shoude and Huang, Mengya and Cai, Wenju and Zhang, Z. and Lin, I.-I. and Kim, Hyunsook and Zhou, Lei and Lin, Xiaopei and Xu, Zhao and Jin, Fei-Fei and Mei, Wei and Wang, Qian and Zhou, Chun and Meng, Ze and Tian, Jiwei and Zhao, Wei},
  title = {Weak self-induced cooling of tropical cyclones amid fast sea surface warming},
  journal = {Nature Geoscience},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41561-025-01879-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01879-x}
}