Black et al. (2026) Emerging hotspots of agricultural drought under climate change

Identification

• Journal: Nature Geoscience
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-14
• Authors: Emily Black, Caroline M. Wainwright, Richard P. Allan, Pier Luigi Vidale
• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01898-8

Research Groups

• Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
• National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), UK
• School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
• National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), UK

Short Summary

This study identifies emerging agricultural drought hotspots in Europe, southern Africa, and the Americas by analyzing soil moisture dynamics and evaporative regimes during specific growing seasons. The findings reveal that drought risk is intensifying through increased frequency and severity, even in regions where future precipitation trends remain uncertain.

Objective

• To identify emerging hotspots of agricultural drought by linking climate change to the land-surface water balance, specifically accounting for soil moisture memory and the transition between different evaporative regimes during the growing season.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global land surface, with a focus on the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1941–2020) and future projections through 2099, utilizing various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (primarily SSP5-8.5).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (ScenarioMIP simulations).
• Data sources: ERA5 global reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store); Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) CMIP6 archive; IPCC-WGI Atlas repository for regional boundaries.
• Analytical Approach: Objective identification of tropical rainy seasons; classification of evaporative regimes including a newly defined state for plant water extraction from the root zone; analysis of root-zone soil moisture (up to 1 m depth) and dry spell indices.

Main Results

• Hotspot Identification: Europe, southern Africa, northern South America, and western North America are confirmed as emerging hotspots where agricultural drought risk is escalating.
• Drought Drivers: Drought trends are strongly linked to soil moisture depletion at the start of the growing season and shifts in evaporative regimes, persisting even in regions where precipitation projections diverge.
• Event Characterization: The research shows that the increase in drought frequency is compounded by a shift toward more severe and intense events, characterized by lower minimum soil moisture and longer dry spell indices.
• Metric Sensitivity: Focusing on growing seasons (rather than annual metrics) revealed critical drought risks in the extratropics that are otherwise overlooked by annual mean data.

Contributions

• Defines a new evaporative state governed by plant extraction of water from the root zone to better link climate change to agricultural impacts.
• Demonstrates that soil moisture persistence from the non-growing season is a critical determinant of agricultural drought risk.
• Provides a framework that identifies drought vulnerability in the global North (extratropics) as well as the global South, highlighting the universal need for drought-resilient adaptation.

Funding

• National Centre for Atmospheric Science, NERC National Capability International Programmes (NC/X006263/1)
• EU Horizon Europe programme (EXPECT, grant no. 101137656)
• National Centre for Earth Observation (NE/RO16518/1 and NE/Y006216/1)

Citation

@article{Black2026Emerging,
  author = {Black, Emily and Wainwright, Caroline M. and Allan, Richard P. and Vidale, Pier Luigi},
  title = {Emerging hotspots of agricultural drought under climate change},
  journal = {Nature Geoscience},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41561-025-01898-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01898-8}
}

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