Li et al. (2026) The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards

Identification

• Journal: Nature Geoscience
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-13
• Authors: Chuxuan Li, Fulden Batibeniz, Yaoping Wang, Yan Fang, Pallav Ray, Gerbrand Koren, Martha Apple, Jiafu Mao, Mingjie Shi, Lingcheng Li, Sreedevi P. Vasu, Mukul Tewari, Daniel E. Horton, Seulgi Moon, Yann Quilcaille
• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01936-z

Research Groups

• Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
• Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA
• Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
• Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
• Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
• Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
• Earth Systems Science Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
• Department of Meteorology, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL, USA
• Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
• Department of Biological Sciences, Montana Technological University, Butte, MT, USA
• Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
• Atmospheric Science Research Center, University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA
• Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

Short Summary

This review synthesizes current understanding of soil moisture's critical role in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards, highlighting its mechanisms in amplifying drought-heatwave-wildfire events, promoting clustered storms, and driving vegetation die-offs, landslides, and flooding. It also identifies persistent challenges and a roadmap for integrating soil moisture into hazard prediction and early warning systems.

Objective

• To review and synthesize the current understanding of soil moisture's critical role in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards, addressing its underrepresentation in hazard research and predictive frameworks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global to regional and local scales, as it synthesizes findings from various studies.
• Temporal Scale: Covers processes over various timescales relevant to hazard evolution, from short-term events to long-term climate change projections (e.g., 1850 to 2100 for some referenced studies).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Synthesizes findings from a wide range of observational and modelling studies, including physics-based and data-driven models. The review itself does not employ specific models.
• Data sources: Synthesizes findings from various observational data, reanalysis products, and modelling outputs. Mentions the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) as a publicly available resource.

Main Results

• Soil moisture critically regulates the exchange of energy, water, and carbon across land–vegetation–atmosphere interfaces.
• Extremes in soil moisture significantly amplify natural hazards through complex interactions with diverse Earth system processes.
• Key soil moisture mechanisms identified include:
  • Atmospheric feedbacks that intensify and expand drought–heatwave–wildfire events.
  • Precipitation couplings that contribute to the formation and clustering of storms.
  • Threshold responses in soil moisture that lead to vegetation die-offs, trigger landslides, and induce flooding.
• Despite its importance, soil moisture is underrepresented in current hazard research and predictive frameworks due to persistent challenges in observational data availability, model representation, and operational implementation.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive synthesis of the latest findings on the mechanistic role of soil moisture in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards.
• Highlights specific, critical soil moisture-driven mechanisms underlying various compound hazards.
• Identifies and discusses the persistent challenges limiting the integration of soil moisture into hazard early-warning systems.
• Proposes a roadmap for advancing hazard prediction and preparedness through improved observations, data assimilation, and both physics-based and data-driven modelling approaches.

Funding

• Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing Scientific Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) project (US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research Office).
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) (US DOE under contract no. DE-AC05-00OR22725).
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, NA22OAR4310612).
• US DOE (DE-SC0025171, DE-SC0025237).
• Soil Moisture Working Group (ORNL RUBISCO SFA).
• Earth and Biological Sciences Directorate’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).
• Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) (US DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract no. DE-AC05-76RL01830).

Citation

@article{Li2026critical,
  author = {Li, Chuxuan and Batibeniz, Fulden and Wang, Yaoping and Fang, Yan and Ray, Pallav and Koren, Gerbrand and Apple, Martha and Mao, Jiafu and Shi, Mingjie and Li, Lingcheng and Vasu, Sreedevi P. and Tewari, Mukul and Horton, Daniel E. and Moon, Seulgi and Quilcaille, Yann},
  title = {The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards},
  journal = {Nature Geoscience},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41561-026-01936-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01936-z}
}