Dunkl et al. (2026) European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s

Identification

• Journal: Nature Geoscience
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-22
• Authors: István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, Sebastian Sippel
• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w

Research Groups

• Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
• Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany

Short Summary

This study disentangles the contributions of thermodynamic versus circulation-driven mechanisms to European hydroclimate changes using nudged atmospheric circulation model simulations. The results show that circulation-induced effects play a substantial role in long-term summer drying.

Objective

• Investigate the relative roles of thermodynamic and dynamic (circulation) drivers of European hydroclimate trends since 1980.
• Quantify the contributions of changes in atmospheric circulation to historical summertime drying and hydroclimate trends in mid-latitude Europe.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental-scale analysis over Europe, with a focus on mid-latitudes.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term trends from 1980 to 2024, with an emphasis on summer (June-August) conditions.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CESM2 climate model with circulation nudging to observed ERA5 patterns.
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis data for atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate variables, E-OBS observational dataset for precipitation.

Main Results

• Circulation-induced effects account for about 55% of the observed summer soil moisture decline in mid-latitude Europe since 1980.
• Thermodynamic drying is weaker but spatially more homogeneous, with negative trends over the Mediterranean and positive trends in Northern Europe.
• The thermodynamic component contributes around 58% to the overall trend in VPD.

Contributions

• This study provides a process-based attribution of European hydroclimate changes using circulation nudging, which improves our understanding of the mechanisms behind observed drying trends.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both dynamic and thermodynamic processes when interpreting past trends and assessing future drought risk.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dunkl2026European,
  author = {Dunkl, István and Bastos, Ana and Sippel, Sebastian},
  title = {European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s},
  journal = {Nature Geoscience},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w}
}