Sinha et al. (2026) ENSO-modulated heat source and moisture sink of Asian monsoon and its impact on rice production

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-27
• Authors: Mourani Sinha, Somnath Jha, Anupam Kumar
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-46128-2

Research Groups

• Department of Mathematics, Techno India University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
• West Bengal Police Service, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
• Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Services Singapore, National Environment Agency, Singapore

Short Summary

This study quantifies the influence of ENSO-modulated Asian monsoon dynamics and associated high-pressure systems on rice yield variability across Asia. It reveals a strong seasonal asymmetry in climate-yield coupling and demonstrates that only La Niña conditions provide a robust, technology-independent positive climatic influence on Asian rice production.

Objective

• To quantify the role of major high-pressure systems (Tibetan High, Mascarene High, West Pacific High, and Siberian High) in regulating rice yield variability across Asia, China, and India, as modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Asia, with specific focus on China and India for rice yield. High-pressure systems cover the broader Asian monsoon region.
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal (summer and winter) and interannual variability, specifically analyzing El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral ENSO phases.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Canonical correlation analysis (CCA), Regression analysis, Trend analyses (Sen’s slope).
• Data sources:
  • Climate variables (temperature and pressure): Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) (DOI: 10.24381/cds.f17050d7).
  • Rice yield data: FAOSTAT (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL).

Main Results

• A pronounced seasonal asymmetry exists in climate–yield coupling, with ocean-driven monsoon dominance in summer transitioning to continental impact during winter.
• The leading summer canonical mode is highly robust (r ≈ 0.51, p < 10⁻¹⁴), indicating strong ocean–atmosphere coupling.
• The dominant winter canonical mode is robust (r ≈ 0.46, p < 10⁻⁸), highlighting land–atmosphere interactions.
• La Niña years exhibit the strongest climate–yield coupling (R² ≈ 0.4–0.9), with detrended rice yield anomalies increasing (Sen’s slope 6.54).
• El Niño years show declining detrended yields (Sen’s slope − 6.06), suggesting adverse climatic effects masked by technological advancements.
• Neutral years display weak and insignificant climate–crop relationships.
• Overall, only La Niña conditions provide a robust, technology-independent positive climatic influence on Asian rice production.

Contributions

• Quantifies the specific roles of major high-pressure systems (Tibetan High, Mascarene High, West Pacific High, Siberian High) in regulating ENSO-modulated rice yield variability.
• Identifies a significant seasonal asymmetry in the ocean-atmosphere and land-atmosphere coupling influencing rice production.
• Provides a clear distinction of the technology-independent climatic impact of different ENSO phases on Asian rice yields, highlighting La Niña as the sole robust positive influence.

Funding

• This research received no external funding.

Citation

@article{Sinha2026ENSOmodulated,
  author = {Sinha, Mourani and Jha, Somnath and Kumar, Anupam},
  title = {ENSO-modulated heat source and moisture sink of Asian monsoon and its impact on rice production},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-46128-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46128-2}
}