Khan et al. (2026) Projected hydrological responses to climate change in a high-mountain river basin based on RCM simulations

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-05-12
• Authors: Adnan Khan, Fiza Gul, Muhammad Fahad Ullah, Hassan Ayaz, Mahmood Ahmad, Feezan Ahmad, Sabahat Hussan, Zsolt Tóth
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-52852-6

Research Groups

• Tongji University (China)
• University of Peshawar (Pakistan)
• Universiti Tenaga Nasional (Malaysia)
• University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar (Pakistan)
• Dalian University of Technology (China)
• HITEC University (Pakistan)
• University of Sopron (Hungary)

Short Summary

This study uses the SWAT model and CORDEX regional climate simulations to project hydrological changes in the Chitral River Basin, finding that climate warming will likely shift peak streamflow timing to June-July.

Objective

• To assess the future hydrological responses of the glacier-fed Chitral River Basin (CRB) in northern Pakistan under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Chitral River Basin (CRB), northern Pakistan (high-mountain catchment).
• Temporal Scale: 2010–2099.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and three CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs).
• Data sources:
  • Precipitation and temperature: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
  • Discharge data: Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).
  • Spatial datasets: MODIS and SRTM DEM (USGS and NASA).

Main Results

• Temperature and Precipitation: Projected temperature increases range from 2.34 °C to 5.23 °C, with precipitation changes between 2.42% and 6% by the late century.
• Streamflow Timing: A shift in seasonal runoff is projected, with peak discharge advancing to June-July due to enhanced snow and ice melt.
• Uncertainty: Significant uncertainty exists regarding the magnitude of annual flow across different climate models and bias-correction methods.
• Model Limitation: Because the SWAT configuration used a static glacier area, the results reflect climate-driven hydrological responses rather than the effects of progressive glacier depletion.

Contributions

• Provides specific hydrological projections for the Chitral River Basin, highlighting the high sensitivity of runoff timing to climatic warming, which serves as a basis for adaptive water-management strategies in the region.

Funding

• Open access funding provided by the University of Sopron. No specific grants from public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors were received.

Citation

@article{Khan2026Projected,
  author = {Khan, Adnan and Gul, Fiza and Ullah, Muhammad Fahad and Ayaz, Hassan and Ahmad, Mahmood and Ahmad, Feezan and Hussan, Sabahat and Tóth, Zsolt},
  title = {Projected hydrological responses to climate change in a high-mountain river basin based on RCM simulations},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-52852-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-52852-6}
}