Shekohideh et al. (2026) Nonlinear hydrological responses to intermediate development pathways in semi-arid watersheds

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-05
• Authors: Hengameh Shekohideh, Mehdi Vafakhah, Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi, Mohammad Tavosi, Vahid Moosavi, Ziyan Zheng
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-69590-4

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, University of Tehran
• Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Tehran
• Iranian Meteorological Organization
• Golestan Regional Water Authority

Short Summary

This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological framework to quantify runoff, sediment yield, and hydrological vulnerability in semi-arid watersheds under different development pathways. The results show that moderate development pathways can induce disproportionate hydrological stress and highlight the importance of sediment-focused frameworks for climate adaptation.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of intermediate development pathways on hydrological responses in semi-arid regions.
• Develop an integrated socio-hydrological framework to assess vulnerability at the sub-watershed scale.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Sub-watersheds (16) within the Gorganrud watershed, Iran.
• Temporal Scale: 2008–2052, with two future periods: 2021–2040 and 2041–2052.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), CA–Markov land-use projections, CMIP6-based Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
• Data sources: Daily precipitation and temperature data from the Iranian Meteorological Organization, discharge and sediment data from the Golestan Regional Water Authority, Landsat imagery for land-use analysis.

Main Results

• Land-use transitions alter watershed structure, with rangeland decline and agricultural expansion.
• Sediment yield increases consistently across all scenarios (15–30% increase).
• Runoff responses show pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with downstream sub-watersheds experiencing increased runoff.
• Decoupling between runoff and sediment responses indicates that erosion processes are more sensitive to land-surface disturbance than discharge magnitude alone.

Contributions

• This study provides a novel integrated socio-hydrological framework for assessing vulnerability at the sub-watershed scale.
• The results highlight the importance of considering sediment dynamics as an indicator of structural watershed instability under progressive land-use change.

Funding

• This research was funded by the University of Tehran (Grant No. 980/2019) and the Iranian Meteorological Organization (Project No. IMO/2020).

Citation

@article{Shekohideh2026Nonlinear,
  author = {Shekohideh, Hengameh and Vafakhah, Mehdi and Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza and Tavosi, Mohammad and Moosavi, Vahid and Zheng, Ziyan},
  title = {Nonlinear hydrological responses to intermediate development pathways in semi-arid watersheds},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-69590-4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-69590-4}
}