Chong et al. (2026) Climate-induced soil erosion sensitivity in a humid tropical watershed under multi-model CMIP6 projections

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-11
• Authors: Kai Lun Chong, Ren Jie Chin, Eugene Zhen Xiang Soo, Cia Yik Ng, Chai Hoon Koo, Ming Han Lim, Long Chen, Ahmed El‐Shafie
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-71514-1

Research Groups

• Faculty of Engineering & Quantity Surveying, INTI International University (INTI-IU)
• Department of Civil Engineering, Lee Kong Chian Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman
• Civil Engineering Programme, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaysia Sabah
• Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaya
• School of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology
• National Water and Energy Center, United Arab Emirates University

Short Summary

This study evaluates climate-driven changes in rainfall-derived soil erosion sensitivity in the Hulu Selangor Basin, Malaysia, using a GIS-based Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) framework coupled with three CMIP6 climate models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of future climate projections on rainfall-derived soil erosion sensitivity in humid tropical watersheds

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Watershed scale (Hulu Selangor Basin, Malaysia)
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (2001-2020) and future projection periods (2021-2060)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, MIROC-ES2L, and three other unspecified models)
• Data sources: Historical rainfall observations from 2001 to 2020, future precipitation projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5

Main Results

• The historical basin exhibited predominantly very low erosion sensitivity, with a mean annual soil loss of 15.89 ton/ha/yr.
• Future projections exhibited substantial inter-model uncertainty in rainfall-derived R factor changes.

Contributions

• This study demonstrates the importance of considering climate-model uncertainty when assessing future rainfall-driven erosion sensitivity in humid tropical watersheds.

Funding

• Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE) Malaysia through the Fundamental Research Grant Scheme project (FRGS/1/2023/WAB02/UTAR/02/1)
• Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman Research Fund (IPSR/RMC/UTARRF/2026-C1/C01)

Citation

@article{Chong2026Climateinduced,
  author = {Chong, Kai Lun and Chin, Ren Jie and Soo, Eugene Zhen Xiang and Ng, Cia Yik and Koo, Chai Hoon and Lim, Ming Han and Chen, Long and El‐Shafie, Ahmed},
  title = {Climate-induced soil erosion sensitivity in a humid tropical watershed under multi-model CMIP6 projections},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-71514-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-71514-1}
}