Lyu et al. (2026) Seasonal attribution disentangles physiological and available water-energy effects on hydrological changes under climate and CO2 changes in subtropical plantation catchment

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-18
• Authors: Sidan Lyu, Wei Li, Xuefa Wen
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-72117-6

Research Groups

• Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISSCAS)
• Qianyanzhou Ecological Research Station (QYZ)

Short Summary

This study proposes a seasonal attribution framework to integrate the extended Budyko framework with the improved SWAT-C model to disentangle the relative contributions of physiological and available water-energy effects on hydrological changes under climate change and eCO2 at the seasonal scale in a subtropical plantation headwater catchment.

Objective

• To quantify the physiological and available water-energy effects on seasonal hydrological changes under climate change and eCO2

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Subtropical plantation headwater catchment (Xiangxi catchment)
• Temporal Scale: Monthly resolution for 1985–2023, with a focus on dry and wet seasons

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Improved SWAT-C model and extended Budyko framework
• Data sources: Meteorological data from QYZ, atmospheric CO2 concentrations from CMIP6, land use maps from QYZ, and hydrological observations from QYZ

Main Results

• Evapotranspiration (ET) changes were dominated by land-surface changes driven by physiological effects of climate change and eCO2
• Runoff (R) changes were primarily controlled by climate-driven available water-energy effects
• Warming and CO2 fertilization raised leaf area index, increasing ET and reducing R in both seasons
• Reduced P suppressed ET and R in the dry season, and increased P amplified them in the wet season

Contributions

• This study provides a new framework for attributing hydrological changes to physiological and available water-energy effects under climate change and eCO2 at the seasonal scale
• The results highlight the importance of considering both physiological and available water-energy effects when predicting hydrological responses to climate change and eCO2

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42022013)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA19020404)
• Jiangxi Province Science and Technology Major Project (Grant No. 20223BBG70003)

Citation

@article{Lyu2026Seasonal,
  author = {Lyu, Sidan and Li, Wei and Wen, Xuefa},
  title = {Seasonal attribution disentangles physiological and available water-energy effects on hydrological changes under climate and CO2 changes in subtropical plantation catchment},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-72117-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-72117-6}
}