Santuy et al. (2026) Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming

Identification

• Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-17
• Authors: David Santuy, Irene Polo, Belén Rodríguez‐Fonseca
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01482-w

Research Groups

Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain. Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain.

Short Summary

This study examines how changes in tropical teleconnections under greenhouse warming reshape potential predictability over the North Atlantic-European region. The results show that ENSO-driven NAE potential predictability is enhanced under greenhouse warming, with implications for climate adaptation in the region.

Objective

• Investigate the evolution of ENSO teleconnections to the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region under greenhouse warming scenarios.
• Assess the impact of these changes on seasonal predictability over the NAE region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on the North Atlantic-European region.
• Temporal Scale: Historical and future climate simulations (CMIP6 models), including the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 multimodel ensemble, including historical and future climate simulations.
• Data sources: Reanalysis data (e.g., ERA-Interim) and satellite observations.

Main Results

• The teleconnection between ENSO and the NAO strengthens and expands eastward under greenhouse warming scenarios.
• Potential predictability over the NAE region increases, particularly in late winter and spring.
• Changes in the jet stream and modifications of dominant modes of variability contribute to these changes.

Contributions

• This study provides multimodel evidence that greenhouse warming enhances ENSO-driven NAE potential predictability.
• The results have implications for climate adaptation in the North Atlantic-European region.

Funding

• This research was supported by projects [insert project names and reference codes, e.g., "European Research Council (ERC) grant agreement number 101001" or "Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIU) grant number PID2020-12345"].

Citation

@article{Santuy2026Enhanced,
  author = {Santuy, David and Polo, Irene and Rodríguez‐Fonseca, Belén},
  title = {Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming},
  journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41612-026-01482-w},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01482-w}
}