Xu et al. (2026) Rising vapor pressure deficit and fuel availability exacerbate the dispersion of intra-annual burned area

Identification

• Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-27
• Authors: Hongtao Xu, Ziqian Zhong, Rui Tang, Yuanfang Chai, Fei Zhang, Yichen Li, Xiaoqi Hu
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01524-3

Research Groups

• College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China.
• China-Mozambique Belt and Road Joint Laboratory on Smart Agriculture, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China.
• Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Division of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.
• State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Short Summary

This study examines the impact of climate change on wildfire dispersion and its consequences for fire-related carbon emissions. The results show that increased vapor pressure deficit and fuel availability lead to a widespread increase in wildfire dispersion, particularly in Eurasia, South America, and Australia.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between climate change and wildfire dispersion.
• Examine the consequences of increased wildfire dispersion on fire-related carbon emissions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale, with a focus on 40 climate regions defined by the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports.
• Temporal Scale: Burning seasons from 2001 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ridge regression analysis and Gini index calculations.
• Data sources: Satellite-derived burned area data (MCD64A1 dataset), fire weather index (FWI) data, and climate variables (vapor pressure deficit, climatic water deficit, and build-up index).

Main Results

• Increased vapor pressure deficit and fuel availability lead to a widespread increase in wildfire dispersion.
• The increased dispersion of burned area does not lead to a synchronous rise in the dispersion of fire-related carbon emissions.
• Carbon emission per unit of burned area significantly rises within the core fire season but insignificantly changes outside it.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on wildfire dispersion and its consequences for fire-related carbon emissions.
• The results highlight the critical role of warming in reshaping seasonal wildfire regimes and have important implications for wildfire management and global carbon budget estimation.

Funding

• This research was funded by the China-Mozambique Belt and Road Joint Laboratory on Smart Agriculture, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China.
• The study also received support from the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Citation

@article{Xu2026Rising,
  author = {Xu, Hongtao and Zhong, Ziqian and Tang, Rui and Chai, Yuanfang and Zhang, Fei and Li, Yichen and Hu, Xiaoqi},
  title = {Rising vapor pressure deficit and fuel availability exacerbate the dispersion of intra-annual burned area},
  journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41612-026-01524-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01524-3}
}