Vacca et al. (2026) Subseasonal variability of the winter North Atlantic jet stream has decreased due to climate change

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-09
• Authors: Andrea Vito Vacca, Jacob Perez, Katinka Bellomo, Julia Casadevall Dìaz, Ieuan Davies, Jost von Hardenberg, Amanda C. Maycock
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03423-0

Research Groups

• Politecnico di Torino, Department of Environment, Land, and Infrastructure Engineering, Turin, Italy
• Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori (IUSS Pavia), Pavia, Italy
• University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, UK
• University of Leeds, Centre for Doctoral Training in Fluid Dynamics, Leeds, UK
• Universitá di Padova, Department of Geoscience, Padua, Italy
• Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR-ISAC), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Turin, Italy

Short Summary

This study reveals a significant decrease in the subseasonal variability of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet's latitude and tilt over the past 75 years due to climate change, with models projecting continued reduction throughout the 21st century.

Objective

• To investigate how the subseasonal variability of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet has changed over recent decades due to climate change, and to project its future evolution.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North Atlantic, Euro-Atlantic, Europe
• Temporal Scale: Past 75 years (historical analysis), 21st century (projections), wintertime, subseasonal timescales

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 climate models
• Data sources:
  • Reanalysis datasets: ERA5, JRA-3Q, NCAR/NCEP
  • CMIP6 model output data
  • Eddy-driven jet detection algorithm
  • Atmospheric blocking algorithm

Main Results

• Over the past 75 years, wintertime subseasonal variability in the North Atlantic jet's latitude has declined by 18%, and its tilt variability has declined by 14%.
• This decreased jet variability is linked to changes in regional storm tracks, atmospheric blocking, and precipitation and temperature variability across Europe.
• Climate models indicate that external forcing contributes to this reduction in jet variability, although models tend to underestimate the observed magnitude of the decline.
• Projections from climate models suggest that jet variability will continue to decrease throughout the 21st century under ongoing global warming.

Contributions

• This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of subseasonal variability changes in the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, extending beyond previous research focused on seasonal mean responses.
• It quantifies the observed decline in jet latitude and tilt variability over the past 75 years and links these changes to impacts on European weather patterns.
• The research highlights a robust response of the North Atlantic jet to climate change, offering crucial insights for understanding current and future European weather and climate.

Funding

• Italian inter-university PhD course in sustainable development and climate change
• “The Geosciences for Sustainable Development” project (Budget Ministero dell’Universitá e della Ricerca-Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023-2027 C93C23002690001)
• UK Natural Environment Research Council StratClust grant (NE/X011933/3)
• EPSRC Fluids Centre for Doctoral Training at the University of Leeds
• NERC PANORAMA Doctoral Training Partnership Research Experience Placement
• Leverhulme Trust
• European Union Next-GenerationEU within the RETURN Extended Partnership (National Recovery and Resilience Plan NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)
• Coupled Modelling Working Group of the World Climate Research Programme (CMIP)

Citation

@article{Vacca2026Subseasonal,
  author = {Vacca, Andrea Vito and Perez, Jacob and Bellomo, Katinka and Dìaz, Julia Casadevall and Davies, Ieuan and Hardenberg, Jost von and Maycock, Amanda C.},
  title = {Subseasonal variability of the winter North Atlantic jet stream has decreased due to climate change},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03423-0},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03423-0}
}