Sun et al. (2026) Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-27
• Authors: Boning Sun, Bernard A. Engel, En Hua, Xinxueqi Han, Xinchun Cao, S N Sun, Yubao Wang
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
• Xinjiang Research Institute of Arid Region Agriculture, Northwest A&F University, Urumqi, 830091, China
• College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
• Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
• College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China

Short Summary

This study develops a global framework integrating an irrigation requirement index (IRI) and an irrigation development suitability index (SI) to assess irrigation demand, development potential, and grain yield gains from irrigation under climate change. The results show that irrigation requirements increase while irrigation development potential declines across most regions.

Objective

• To evaluate the impact of climate change on global irrigation demand and development potential.
• To develop a framework for assessing irrigation requirement index (IRI) and irrigation development suitability index (SI).
• To analyze the spatial heterogeneity of global irrigation development potential and yield improvement potential under various climate scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale, with a focus on major agricultural regions.
• Temporal Scale: 2030, 2040, and 2050, using climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: AquaCrop model coupled with multiple climate models and parameter sets.
• Data sources: Hydrological models (WATERGAP and PCR-GLOBWB) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), CMIP6 dataset, and crop water requirement data.

Main Results

• Irrigation requirements increase while irrigation development potential declines across most regions under climate change.
• The proportion of global five-crop area classified into the high-irrigation-requirement class increases from 0.85% in 2030 to 25% by 2050.
• Global total grain production is projected to range between 2.85 and 3.04 billion tons, with irrigation increasing total production by more than 300 Mt compared with rainfed conditions.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive framework for assessing irrigation demand, development potential, and yield improvement potential under climate change.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both irrigation requirement index (IRI) and irrigation development suitability index (SI) in evaluating global irrigation dynamics.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41661144008).
• The authors also acknowledge funding from the Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, and Purdue University.

Citation

@article{Sun2026Increasing,
  author = {Sun, Boning and Liu, Rong and Xing, Xin and Engel, Bernard A. and Hua, En and Han, Xinxueqi and Cao, Xinchun and Sun, S N and Wang, Yubao},
  title = {Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7}
}