Huang et al. (2026) Targeted adaptation options can effectively reduce amplified compound water-heat stress around maize flowering in China

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-06
• Authors: Mingxia Huang, Jing Wang, Bin Wang, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, De Li Liu, Hong Yin, Bo Lü, Keyu Xiang, Senthold Asseng
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03785-5

Research Groups

• College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
• National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
• CMA-CAU Joint Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing, China.
• NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia.
• Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, NSW, Australia.
• Gulbali Institute for Agriculture, Water and Environment, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia.
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
• Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.
• Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, NSW, Australia.
• School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
• Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, HEF World Agricultural Systems Center, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.

Short Summary

This study developed a compound water-heat stress index (WHSI) to quantify the spatiotemporal variations in co-occurring water and heat stresses around maize flowering in China. The results show that WHSI can effectively capture historical yield variations in major maize-growing regions. Future projections indicate a substantial increase in compound water-heat stress events, driven primarily by rising temperature.

Objective

• To develop a combined water and heat stress index (WHSI) to quantify the intensity and frequency of compound water and heat stresses around maize flowering.
• To evaluate the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of combined water-heat stress in China's Maize Belt.
• To assess the adaptation capacity of different adaptations in combating compound water-heat stress during flowering.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China's Maize Belt, covering a wide range of latitudes (23–48° N) with contrasting climate conditions.
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2100, including baseline period (1980–2009), 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Process-based crop model (APSIM 7.7) to simulate crop phenology and soil water dynamics.
• Data sources: Maize yield data from major maize-producing provinces in China, climate projections from five selected Global Climate Models (GCMs).

Main Results

• The compound water-heat stress index (WHSI) was developed to quantify the intensity and frequency of compound water and heat stresses around maize flowering.
• WHSI values exceeding -3.0 are assumed to be detrimental to maize, indicating minimal compound stress.
• Future projections show a substantial increase in compound water-heat stress events, driven primarily by rising temperature.
• Dynamic adaptation has a greater capacity to mitigate compound stress, reducing it by an average of 70.6% and 74.3% across all regions during 1980–2099 under SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5, respectively.

Contributions

• This study provides a new framework for assessing the impacts of compound water and heat stresses on crop production.
• The WHSI index can be applied to other crops and regions to assess and project the impacts of current and future compound extreme weather and climate events on crop production.
• The results highlight the critical role of targeted adaptation measures implemented to mitigate the worsening impact of amplified compound water-heat stress on crop yield.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0602300), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41877042, 41530534), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2021ZCQ01).

Citation

@article{Huang2026Targeted,
  author = {Huang, Mingxia and Wang, Jing and Wang, Bin and Müller, Christoph and Jägermeyr, Jonas and Liu, De Li and Yin, Hong and Lü, Bo and Xiang, Keyu and Asseng, Senthold},
  title = {Targeted adaptation options can effectively reduce amplified compound water-heat stress around maize flowering in China},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03785-5},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03785-5}
}