Tanarhte et al. (2026) Atmospheric drivers and socioeconomic impacts of precipitation variability in North Africa

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-16
• Authors: Meryem Tanarhte, Andries Jan de Vries, George Zittis, Moshe Armon, Assaf Hochman, A. Karpasitis, D. Kaskaoutis, S. Khodayar
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03801-8

Research Groups

• Faculté des Sciences et Techniques Mohammedia, University Hassan II, Casablanca, Morocco
• Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
• Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
• Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
• Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
• Mediterranean Center for Environmental Studies (CEAM), Valencia, Spain

Short Summary

This review synthesizes current knowledge on precipitation variability across North Africa from the early Holocene to future climate scenarios, identifying key atmospheric drivers and contrasting regional trends, while highlighting significant socioeconomic impacts and persistent knowledge gaps for climate adaptation.

Objective

• To synthesize current knowledge on precipitation variability across North Africa, identify key atmospheric drivers, examine its coupling with dust and hydrological processes, and synthesize how these interactions propagate into socio-economic and ecosystem impacts, spanning from the early Holocene to future climate scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt), including Mediterranean coastal zone, Sahara Desert, Atlas Mountains, Sahel, and three major hydrobasins ("North West Coast," "Mediterranean South Coast," and "North Interior").
• Temporal Scale: Early Holocene (around 11,700 years ago) to future climate scenarios (projections for 2050–2090), with present-day analyses covering periods like 1980–2022 and 1979–2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP5, CMIP6, regional climate models (e.g., MENA-CORDEX, ALADIN-Climate, RegCM4.4), WRF-Chem (for dust modeling context). The paper is a review, synthesizing results from these models.
• Data sources:
  • Satellite: MSWEP v2, GPM IMERG v7, TRMM PR, MODIS Deep Blue.
  • Observation: Meteorological stations, gauges.
  • Reanalysis: ERA5, GPCC.
  • Paleoclimate Proxies: Speleothem data, sediment cores, isotopic records, archaeological evidence (rock art).
  • Other: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (NAO index), FAO-AQUASTAT (hydrobasins), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation data.

Main Results

• Precipitation variability in North Africa exhibits pronounced spatial and temporal changes driven by natural variability and anthropogenic climate forcing.
• Key atmospheric drivers include synoptic-scale weather systems (e.g., Rossby waves, extratropical cyclones, Saharan Heat Low, atmospheric rivers, tropical plumes, Medicanes) and large-scale teleconnections (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies).
• Present-day trends show spatially heterogeneous changes in annual mean precipitation, with some regions indicating decreasing precipitation (e.g., parts of north-eastern Algeria and north-western Libya) and others showing increasing variability (e.g., Rif mountains in northern Morocco).
• Precipitation variability critically influences hydrological extremes (droughts and floods), impacting agriculture, water resources, hydropower production, and ecosystems.
• The interplay between precipitation variability and dust activity is complex: precipitation variability strongly controls dust emissions, but dust feedback on precipitation remains highly uncertain and spatially heterogeneous.
• Future projections consistently indicate drying along the Mediterranean coast, with reductions sometimes reaching 30–40% relative to recent baselines under high-emission scenarios.
• An increase in interannual precipitation variability is projected over the southern Sahara, particularly under SSP5-8.5, while the northwestern region of Africa may experience reduced interannual variability.
• Along the Mediterranean coast, a larger fraction of annual precipitation may occur during short-duration extreme events, consistent with scenarios of reduced mean precipitation coinciding with intensified extremes.

Contributions

• Provides an integrative synthesis of precipitation variability across North Africa's contrasting climatic regimes and timescales, from the early Holocene to future projections.
• Explicitly links large-scale circulation features and synoptic-scale weather systems to distinct modes of precipitation variability.
• Examines the coupling of precipitation variability with dust and hydrological processes, and synthesizes how these interactions propagate into socio-economic and ecosystem impacts using a novel "pathways framework."
• Advances existing literature by focusing on precipitation variability as a central climate hazard across multiple timescales and climatic regimes, unlike previous reviews that addressed aspects separately.
• Highlights persistent knowledge gaps, particularly regarding dust–precipitation interactions, and emphasizes the need for integrated observational, modeling, and process-based approaches to improve future assessments and support climate adaptation.

Funding

• COST Action FutureMed, CA22162 (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).
• Open-access publication charges were supported by COST Action CA22162.

Citation

@article{Tanarhte2026Atmospheric,
  author = {Tanarhte, Meryem and Vries, Andries Jan de and Zittis, George and Armon, Moshe and Hochman, Assaf and Karpasitis, A. and Kaskaoutis, D. and Khodayar, S.},
  title = {Atmospheric drivers and socioeconomic impacts of precipitation variability in North Africa},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03801-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03801-8}
}