Qiao et al. (2026) Flash droughts amplify maize yield losses through intensified atmospheric aridity

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-29
• Authors: Cancan Qiao, Shuo Wang, Peng Zhu, Jason A. Otkin, Zong‐Liang Yang, Amir AghaKouchak
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03834-z

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Land Surveying and Geospatial Science, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
• Otto Poon Research Institute for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure, Research Institute for Land and Space, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
• Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
• Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
• Department of Geological Sciences, The John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
• Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, Richmond Hill, ON, Canada

Short Summary

This study investigates the impacts of flash droughts on maize yield in the United States, finding that they cause widespread yield losses with a yield sensitivity 27.53% greater than slow-onset droughts due to intensified atmospheric aridity.

Objective

• Investigate the effects of flash and slow-onset droughts on maize yield in the US
• Quantify the amplified yield sensitivity to flash droughts compared to slow-onset droughts

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: County-level analysis across 18 states in the central US
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2023, with a focus on the maize growing season

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) integrated with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP)
• Data sources: County-level yield records from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, phenological observations, reanalysis datasets (GLEAM, ERA5-Land, GLDAS/Noah), and climate data (PRISM)

Main Results

• Flash droughts cause widespread maize yield losses across the US
• Amplified yield sensitivity to flash droughts compared to slow-onset droughts (27.53%)
• Intensified atmospheric aridity during flash droughts is the primary driver of amplified yield sensitivity

Contributions

• This study provides new evidence on the disproportionate impacts of flash droughts on maize yield
• The findings highlight the need for improved crop model fidelity and targeted strategies for agricultural resilience against flash droughts

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text

Citation

@article{Qiao2026Flash,
  author = {Qiao, Cancan and Wang, Shuo and Zhu, Peng and Otkin, Jason A. and Yang, Zong‐Liang and AghaKouchak, Amir},
  title = {Flash droughts amplify maize yield losses through intensified atmospheric aridity},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03834-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03834-z}
}