Barlow et al. (2026) Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Jos Barlow, Nathália S. Carvalho, Cássio Alencar Nunes, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Ane A. C. Alencar, Liana O. Anderson, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Fabrício Beggiato Baccaro, Mike Barret, Érika Berenguer, Kristian Bodolai, Paulo Monteiro Brando, Thiago B. A. Couto, Tomas Ferreira Domingues, Fernando Elias, Ted R. Feldpausch, Igor José Malfetoni Ferreira, Joice Ferreira, Bernardo M. Flores, Toby Alan Gardner, Emanuel Gloor, Marina Hirota, Valerie Kapos, David M. Lapola, Cecília Gontijo Leal, Alexander Charles Lees, Bel Lyon, Marcia Nunes Macedo, Yadvinder Singh Malhi, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Patrick Meir, Lina María Mercado, Oliver Metcalf, Leonardo Miranda, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Douglas C. Morton, Jeanne L. Nel, Rafael S. Oliveira, Oliver Lawrence Phillips, Lucy M. Rowland, Juliana Schietti, Camila V. J. Silva, Celso H. L. Silva, Patrícia S. Silva, Juliana M. Silveira, Divino Vicente Silvério, Stephen A. Sitch, Paulo Amador Tavares, Cristina Telhado, Ima C. G. Vieira, Helga Correa Wiederhecker
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1

Research Groups

• Lancaster University Department of Life Sciences
• Amazon Conservation Association
• National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA)
• University of São Paulo, Brazil
• University College London, UK
• Other collaborating institutions from Brazil and the UK.

Short Summary

This study assesses climate change in Amazonia over 43 years (1981-2023), revealing rapid increases in extreme temperature and water deficit, particularly in the central-north region. The findings highlight the urgent need for adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate extremes on socio-ecological systems.

Objective

• Investigate the spatial-temporal changes in climate extremes across Amazonia.
• Examine the relationship between changes in temperature and evapotranspiration (ET) with water deficit and vapour pressure deficit (VPD).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 7 million km2 region of Amazonia, divided into 57,900 grid cells at a spatial resolution of 11 km.
• Temporal Scale: 43-year period from 1981 to 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5-Land post-processed daily statistics dataset for temperature and VPD; CHIRPS v2 dataset for precipitation.
• Data sources: Satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and climate reanalysis products.

Main Results

• Rapid increases in extreme temperatures (0.49 °C per decade) and water deficit (−12.75 mm per decade) in the central-north region of Amazonia.
• Temperature-linked measures of maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWDTemp) show large changes over time, with higher values for extreme percentiles.
• Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increases at a rate of 0.06 kPa per decade at the central trend and 0.08 kPa per decade at the 95th percentile.

Contributions

• This study provides an integrated assessment of climate change in Amazonia, examining both frequency and magnitude of extreme events.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering temperature-linked measures of water deficit and VPD in assessing climate extremes.

Funding

• Lancaster University's Department of Life Sciences (UK)
• Amazon Conservation Association (Brazil)
• National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA) (Brazil)
• University of São Paulo, Brazil
• University College London, UK
• Other collaborating institutions from Brazil and the UK.

Citation

@article{Barlow2026Rapid,
  author = {Barlow, Jos and Carvalho, Nathália S. and Nunes, Cássio Alencar and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra and Alencar, Ane A. C. and Anderson, Liana O. and Aragão, Luiz E. O. C. and Baccaro, Fabrício Beggiato and Barret, Mike and Berenguer, Érika and Bodolai, Kristian and Brando, Paulo Monteiro and Couto, Thiago B. A. and Domingues, Tomas Ferreira and Elias, Fernando and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Ferreira, Igor José Malfetoni and Ferreira, Joice and Flores, Bernardo M. and Galbraith, David and Gardner, Toby Alan and Gloor, Emanuel and Hirota, Marina and Kapos, Valerie and Lapola, David M. and Leal, Cecília Gontijo and Lees, Alexander Charles and Lyon, Bel and Macedo, Marcia Nunes and Malhi, Yadvinder Singh and Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes and Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur and Meir, Patrick and Mercado, Lina María and Metcalf, Oliver and Miranda, Leonardo and Mitchard, Edward T. A. and Morton, Douglas C. and Nel, Jeanne L. and Oliveira, Rafael S. and Phillips, Oliver Lawrence and Rowland, Lucy M. and Schietti, Juliana and Silva, Camila V. J. and Silva, Celso H. L. and Silva, Patrícia S. and Silveira, Juliana M. and Silvério, Divino Vicente and Sitch, Stephen A. and Tavares, Paulo Amador and Telhado, Cristina and Vieira, Ima C. G. and Wiederhecker, Helga Correa},
  title = {Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1}
}