Liang et al. (2026) Anthropogenic warming is projected to divert atmospheric rivers toward densely populated Asia

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-26
• Authors: Ju Liang, Matthew David Collins, Zhihua Pan, 任雪娟, Xichen Li, Jing Wang, Xuebiao Pan, Binxiang Huang, 何奇瑾 HE Qijin, Buju Long, Wanlin Dong, Guanyuan Ma
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-04075-w

Research Groups

• China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
• China Meteorological Administration-China Agriculture University Joint Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU), Beijing, China.
• Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
• School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
• Institute of Ocean Research, Peking University, Beijing, China.
• China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.

Short Summary

This study projects future changes in atmospheric rivers (ARs) over Asia using a high-resolution multi-model ensemble and multiple AR detection tools. The results reveal a dynamically inhibited yet thermodynamically enhanced activity under anthropogenic warming, with significant implications for population exposure to AR-induced extreme precipitation.

Objective

• Investigate the projected near-future changes in AR characteristics and associated population exposure over Asia.
• Examine the role of dynamic inhibition and thermodynamic enhancement in modulating AR frequency and intensity.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Asia) to global scale, with a focus on the Asian monsoon region.
• Temporal Scale: 2021–2050 under an idealized high-end warming scenario relative to the present-day simulation (1981–2010).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Six HighResMIP AGCMs from the CMIP6 protocol, with resolutions ranging from 20 to 50 km.
• Data sources: Atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed SSTs.

Main Results

• Projected near-future changes in AR frequency reveal a dynamically inhibited yet thermodynamically enhanced activity under anthropogenic warming.
• Dynamic inhibition dominates across lower latitudes, while thermodynamic enhancement drives AR increases in densely populated regions.
• Population growth and increased exposure to ARs are projected to lead to significant increases in population exposure to extreme precipitation.

Contributions

• This study provides a regionally focused exposure assessment for ARs in the Asian monsoon region using high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations.
• The results highlight the importance of considering both dynamic inhibition and thermodynamic enhancement in projecting future AR changes.

Funding

• HighResMIP experimental protocol (CMIP6).
• China Meteorological Administration-China Agriculture University Joint Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change (LACC/CMA-CAU).

Citation

@article{Liang2026Anthropogenic,
  author = {Liang, Ju and Collins, Matthew David and Pan, Zhihua and 任雪娟 and Li, Xichen and Wang, Jing and Pan, Xuebiao and Huang, Binxiang and Qijin, 何奇瑾 HE and Long, Buju and Dong, Wanlin and Ma, Guanyuan},
  title = {Anthropogenic warming is projected to divert atmospheric rivers toward densely populated Asia},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-04075-w},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04075-w}
}