Al-Shaqsi et al. (2026) Probable maximum flood of the Usk dam spillway in Wales

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Springer Link (Chiba Institute of Technology)
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-01
• Authors: Yumna Al-Shaqsi, A. Siva Subramaniam
• DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202670208001/pdf

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the paper.

Short Summary

This study aims to estimate the probable maximum flood (PMF) for the Usk Reservoir in southern Wales, UK, using the HEC-HMS model, providing crucial hydrological data for water resource management in an area previously lacking such investigations.

Objective

• To examine and study the probable maximum flood (PMF) of the Usk Reservoir in southern Wales, UK, to support water and environmental resources planning and management.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The Usk Reservoir catchment area (16.66 km²) in southern Wales, UK, subdivided into 17 sub-catchments.
• Temporal Scale: Event-based, focusing on the duration of a probable maximum flood event.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: HEC-HMS 4.3, HEC-GeoHMS, ArcGIS.
• Data sources: DigiMaps by EDINA (for catchment delineation), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), soil maps, land use maps, meteorological data (including Type IA synthetic rainfall distribution), geomorphologic maps, topographic data.
• Key methods: Manual and automatic catchment delineation, subdivision into sub-catchments, lumped and event-based discharge modeling, analysis of runoff influencing factors (precipitation loss, CN values, initial abstraction, lag time), examination of three lag time scenarios (50%, 100%, 200% of actual).

Main Results

• Peak inflow, peak discharge, inflow volume, and discharge values were obtained and thoroughly discussed for the Usk Reservoir catchment under probable maximum flood conditions.
• The study provided quantitative estimates of hydrological parameters critical for flood risk assessment and reservoir management.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive probable maximum flood (PMF) study for the Usk Reservoir, addressing a critical gap in hydrological investigations for this specific reservoir.
• Offers a practical application of hydrological modeling (HEC-HMS) for flood risk assessment in a data-scarce region.
• Demonstrates the impact of varying lag time scenarios on flood estimations, contributing to a better understanding of hydrological response.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the paper.

Citation

@article{AlShaqsi2026Probable,
  author = {Al-Shaqsi, Yumna and Subramaniam, A. Siva},
  title = {Probable maximum flood of the Usk dam spillway in Wales},
  journal = {Springer Link (Chiba Institute of Technology)},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1051/e3sconf/202670208001/pdf},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202670208001/pdf}
}