Perez et al. (2026) Evaluating the Sustainability and Adaptability of the Maipo-Mapocho Aquifer under Climate Change Projections

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-08
• Authors: Melissa Vargas Perez, Marcelo Olivares Alveal, Carlos Poblete Troncoso
• DOI: 10.1061/jwrmd5.wreng-7311

Research Groups

• University of Chile Department of Geology
• Pontifical Catholic University of Chile Faculty of Engineering
• National Water Agency (DGA)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the sustainability of the Maipo–Mapocho aquifer in central Chile under current and future climate conditions, highlighting the need for integrated adaptation strategies to ensure long-term water security.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and levels in the Maipo–Mapocho aquifer

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Maipo–Mapocho aquifer in central Chile, covering an area of approximately 10,000 km².
• Temporal Scale: The analysis spans the period from 2021 to 2050, considering both current and future climate conditions.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: MODFLOW-based hydrogeological model
• Data sources:
  • Climate projections from multiple global climate models (GCMs)
  • Soil and geologic data from national databases

Main Results

• Recharge reduction of 10% to 47% in the Maipo–Mapocho aquifer under future climate conditions
• Groundwater level declines exceeding 50 m in many areas and 100 m in the most impacted zones
• Strong spatial variability, with critical depletion in Northern Zone and storage losses of 36%–60% in central areas

Contributions

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of aquifer sustainability under future climate conditions, highlighting the need for integrated adaptation strategies to ensure long-term water security. The results emphasize the importance of considering multiple scenarios and adaptation levels to mitigate impacts on groundwater resources.

Funding

• FONDECYT Project 1180715: "Assessment of Aquifer Sustainability in Central Chile"
• CONICYT Project PIA AFB170001: "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Chile"

Citation

@article{Perez2026Evaluating,
  author = {Perez, Melissa Vargas and Alveal, Marcelo Olivares and Troncoso, Carlos Poblete},
  title = {Evaluating the Sustainability and Adaptability of the Maipo-Mapocho Aquifer under Climate Change Projections},
  journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1061/jwrmd5.wreng-7311},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1061/jwrmd5.wreng-7311}
}