Guse et al. (2026) Event indicator analysis using depth functions to explain the occurrence of large floods in Germany

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Sciences Journal
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-25
• Authors: Björn Guse, Faizan Anwar, Bruno Merz, Larisa Tarasova, Elena Macdonald, Ralf Merz, András Bàrdossy, Sergiy Vorogushyn
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2026.2710212

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrology, University of Freiburg
• German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)

Short Summary

This study investigates the drivers of large flood peaks in Germany using a multivariate statistical approach and identifies maximum event precipitation and event precipitation volume as key indicators.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between hydrometeorological conditions and large flood peak magnitudes

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 169 gauges across Germany
• Temporal Scale: Daily observations over at least 50 years per gauge

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Tukey’s depth function for multivariate data analysis
• Data sources: Daily precipitation and discharge observations from German gauges

Main Results

• Large floods have reduced depth values, indicating unusual event indicator values
• Maximum event precipitation and event precipitation volume are key indicators of flood peak magnitude
• Antecedent catchment state and catchment response indicators can improve explanation in some cases

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the drivers of large flood peaks and highlights the importance of individual event characteristics
• The results contribute to a better understanding of the complex relationships between hydrometeorological conditions and flood peak magnitudes

Funding

• German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) project "Hydrological Extremes" (01LP1601A)
• Helmholtz Association's research program "Advanced Earth System Modelling"

Citation

@article{Guse2026Event,
  author = {Guse, Björn and Anwar, Faizan and Merz, Bruno and Tarasova, Larisa and Macdonald, Elena and Merz, Ralf and Bàrdossy, András and Vorogushyn, Sergiy},
  title = {Event indicator analysis using depth functions to explain the occurrence of large floods in Germany},
  journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1080/02626667.2026.2710212},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2710212}
}