Pradhan et al. (2026) Atmospheric rivers increase global flood risk

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Sucheta Pradhan, Conrad Wasko, Murray Peel
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae362a

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the global contribution of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) to rare flood risk, finding that ARs significantly increase the likelihood and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood events, making large floods 2-8 times and rare floods up to 12 times more probable in some regions.

Objective

• To quantify the contribution of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) to rare flood risk globally.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, covering 2686 largely regulation-free catchments worldwide.
• Temporal Scale: Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract, but implies analysis of historical extreme events and their recurrence intervals.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.
• Data sources: Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract, but implies global precipitation, streamflow, and atmospheric river detection data for 2686 catchments.

Main Results

• In some regions, Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are linked to over 70% of the largest precipitation and streamflow events.
• AR-related precipitation significantly shortens the recurrence intervals of large flood events, making them 2–8 times more likely.
• In parts of Northern America, Europe, and Australia, rare flood events are up to 12 times more likely when an AR is present.
• ARs play a crucial role in increasing the frequency of extreme hydrological events on a global scale.

Contributions

• Provides the first global quantification of the contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to rare flood risk.
• Quantifies the increased likelihood and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood events due to the presence of ARs across a large number of catchments worldwide.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Pradhan2026Atmospheric,
  author = {Pradhan, Sucheta and Wasko, Conrad and Peel, Murray},
  title = {Atmospheric rivers increase global flood risk},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae362a},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae362a}
}