Gurazada et al. (2026) ENSO’s influence on co-occurring hot-dry and hot-wet extremes across global croplands

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-25
• Authors: Madhulika Gurazada, John T Abatzoglou, Deepti Singh
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae4a3d

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on co-occurring hot-dry (HD) and hot-wet (HW) extreme events across global croplands. It finds that El Niño years significantly increase the localized risk and global exposure of croplands, particularly for staple crops like rice, to both HD and HW extremes, necessitating integration into agricultural early warning systems.

Objective

• To examine ENSO’s influence on co-occurring hot-dry (HD) and hot-wet (HW) extreme events across global croplands, given their potential risks for food production.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global croplands, with specific regional analyses including India, Australia, the Sahel, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.
• Temporal Scale: 1901–2024 (124 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not explicitly mentioned for climate data generation; Niño 3.4 index used for ENSO characterization.
• Data sources: Niño 3.4 index, high-resolution climate data, crop extent data, and crop calendar data.

Main Results

• Increased risk of both hot-dry (HD) and hot-wet (HW) events across global croplands during El Niño years.
• Localized risk of HD events more than doubles across parts of global croplands (e.g., India, Australia, the Sahel, Brazil, Mexico) during El Niño relative to ENSO-Neutral years.
• Significantly elevated global cropland HD exposure observed during developing El Niño summers.
• Localized risk of HW events also more than doubles, particularly across India, Argentina, Brazil, and parts of the Sahel.
• Significantly elevated global cropland HW exposure observed in decaying El Niño summers.
• Rice shows the strongest link to ENSO among staple crops, with global exposure increasing greater than 30% for HD and greater than 40% for HW above Neutral years.

Contributions

• Quantifies the localized risk and assesses exposure of compound heat extremes (HD and HW) across global agricultural systems, an area previously less explored in relation to ENSO.
• Highlights the association between ENSO and shifts in multi-crop exposure to these compound extremes.
• Emphasizes the critical need to integrate ENSO-conditioned compound event risks into early warning systems and country- and crop-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate climate-related agricultural risks.

Funding

Not mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Gurazada2026ENSOs,
  author = {Gurazada, Madhulika and Abatzoglou, John T and Singh, Deepti},
  title = {ENSO’s influence on co-occurring hot-dry and hot-wet extremes across global croplands},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae4a3d},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae4a3d}
}