Jong et al. (2026) Reversal of extreme precipitation trends over the Northeast US in response to aggressive climate mitigation in GFDL SPEAR

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-13
• Authors: Bor‐Ting Jong, Zachary Michael Labe, Thomas L. Delworth, William Cooke
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae51a6

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This paper assesses projected changes in extreme precipitation over the Northeast US under an aggressive overshoot mitigation pathway, finding that while warm-season extremes decline quickly after greenhouse gas reductions, cold-season extremes exhibit a delayed response and hysteresis, returning to mid-century levels by 2100.

Objective

• To assess projected changes in extreme precipitation over the Northeast US under an aggressive overshoot mitigation pathway (SSP5-3.4OS) and understand the regional and seasonal responses of extreme precipitation to rapid greenhouse gas reductions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northeast US, simulated with a 25-kilometer resolution climate model.
• Temporal Scale: Early 21st century to late 21st century (specifically, greenhouse gas reductions starting in 2041, net-negative by late 21st century, analysis up to 2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: GFDL SPEAR climate model (fully-coupled, 25-kilometer resolution).
• Data sources: Simulations from the GFDL SPEAR climate model under the SSP5-3.4OS scenario.

Main Results

• The frequency of extreme precipitation over the Northeast US increases through mid-century under higher radiative forcing.
• Following sharp reductions in greenhouse gas concentrations, extreme precipitation frequency begins to decline, but the rate of decrease exhibits pronounced seasonality.
• In the warm season, extreme precipitation frequency declines shortly after greenhouse gas drawdown begins, returning by 2100 to levels comparable to those of the early 21st century.
• In the cold season, the response is delayed; extreme precipitation frequency continues rising for approximately a decade after peak global mean warming and exhibits hysteresis behavior.
• By 2100, cold-season extreme precipitation only returns to mid-century levels.
• The delayed cold-season response is spatially heterogeneous, suggesting varied impacts on major metropolitan areas with dense populations and vulnerable infrastructure.

Contributions

• Provides insights into the complex, regionally and seasonally modulated responses of extreme precipitation to aggressive overshoot mitigation pathways.
• Highlights the benefits of climate mitigation in reducing extreme precipitation events while demonstrating the non-linear and delayed nature of regional climate responses, particularly in the cold season.
• Emphasizes the importance of considering seasonality, local-scale effects, and other factors when projecting climate change impacts and mitigation benefits.

Funding

Not mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Jong2026Reversal,
  author = {Jong, Bor‐Ting and Labe, Zachary Michael and Delworth, Thomas L. and Cooke, William},
  title = {Reversal of extreme precipitation trends over the Northeast US in response to aggressive climate mitigation in GFDL SPEAR},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae51a6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51a6}
}