Chen et al. (2026) Impact of deep-inland typhoon track uncertainty on the 2023 record-breaking rainfall over North China: an ensemble-based analysis

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-13
• Authors: Rui Chen, Hongxiong Xu, Xiangde Xu
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae51ab

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract, but the study utilizes ECMWF ensemble data, implying involvement or collaboration with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Short Summary

This study applied ensemble sensitivity analysis to ECMWF ensemble data to diagnose the large-scale circulation controls on the unprecedented Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei rainfall event in July-August 2023, finding that rainfall extremes were tightly governed by the precise trajectory of Typhoon Doksuri's remnants, which modulated the critical spatial alignment of moisture flux, typhoon intensity, and terrain-enhanced convergence.

Objective

• To diagnose the large-scale circulation controls on the unprecedented Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei rainfall event from 29 July to 1 August 2023, driven by the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri, with a focus on the influence of forecast uncertainty (specifically typhoon track) on inland rainfall over complex terrain.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, characterized by complex terrain.
• Temporal Scale: 29 July to 1 August 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ECMWF ensemble (for ensemble sensitivity analysis).
• Data sources: ECMWF ensemble output.

Main Results

• Rainfall extremes during the event were tightly governed by the trajectory of the remnants of the typhoon's cyclonic circulation.
• The typhoon remnant's trajectory critically modulated the spatial alignment among moisture flux, typhoon intensity, and terrain-enhanced convergence.
• Deviations from the observed typhoon track, whether eastward or westward, significantly disrupted this crucial spatial alignment.
• Disruption of this alignment led to substantially reduced precipitation, even when moisture flux was comparable or stronger.

Contributions

• Improves the understanding of typhoon-induced inland rainfall, particularly over complex terrain.
• Highlights the critical importance of enhanced track guidance in forecasting high-impact flood events.

Funding

Not mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Chen2026Impact,
  author = {Chen, Rui and Xu, Hongxiong and Xu, Xiangde},
  title = {Impact of deep-inland typhoon track uncertainty on the 2023 record-breaking rainfall over North China: an ensemble-based analysis},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae51ab},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51ab}
}