Du et al. (2026) A recent significant increase in tropical cyclone-induced precipitation in the North China Plain

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-13
• Authors: Lei Du, Xingyan Zhou, Yizhou Yin, Jiuwei Zhao, Xinyu Li, Riyu Lu
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae51ad

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study reveals a significant increasing trend in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over the North China Plain from 1981 to 2024, driven by a remarkable surge since 2018 due to elongated TC tracks with deeper inland penetration, linked to an anomalous easterly steering flow.

Objective

• To analyze the long-term trends in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over the North China Plain and identify the underlying mechanisms driving any observed changes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North China Plain.
• Temporal Scale: 1981 to 2024 (44 years), with analysis of hourly data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified; analysis based on observational data.
• Data sources: Hourly precipitation data from 278 observational stations.

Main Results

• A significant increasing trend in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation was observed over the North China Plain from 1981 to 2024.
• This long-term increase is primarily driven by a remarkable surge in TC-induced precipitation amount since 2018.
• The annual mean TC precipitation nearly quadrupled, rising from 23.62 mm during 1981–2017 to 90.76 mm in 2018–2024.
• A similar upward trend was observed in TC-induced extreme precipitation, indicating an increasing contribution of TCs to the region’s total extreme precipitation.
• The precipitation intensification is attributed to the significant elongation of individual TC tracks, characterized by a westward extension and deeper inland penetration, rather than a slowdown in TC translation speed.
• This track alteration is linked to an anomalous easterly steering flow, which is associated with a mid-to-upper-level anticyclonic anomaly near Japan.

Contributions

• Provides a long-term (1981-2024) observational analysis of TC precipitation trends over the North China Plain.
• Quantifies the significant surge in TC precipitation since 2018 and its increasing contribution to extreme precipitation.
• Identifies the mechanistic link between altered TC tracks (elongation, westward extension, deeper inland penetration) and increased precipitation.
• Attributes the track alteration to specific atmospheric circulation anomalies (anomalous easterly steering flow linked to a mid-to-upper-level anticyclonic anomaly near Japan).

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Du2026recent,
  author = {Du, Lei and Zhou, Xingyan and Yin, Yizhou and Zhao, Jiuwei and Li, Xinyu and Lu, Riyu},
  title = {A recent significant increase in tropical cyclone-induced precipitation in the North China Plain},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae51ad},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51ad}
}