Gensini (2026) Extreme events and the insurance industry in a changing climate

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-26
• Authors: Vittorio A. Gensini
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae57c2

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract, but the paper advocates for collaboration between atmospheric scientists, climate modelers, and insurance industry practitioners.

Short Summary

This letter argues for the formal integration of high-resolution downscaling, ensemble modeling, and catastrophe risk analysis to bridge the gap between coarse global climate models and the insurance industry's need for local, probabilistic risk assessment in a changing climate.

Objective

• To advocate for a more formal integration of high-resolution downscaling, ensemble modeling, and catastrophe risk analysis to address the increasing financial burdens on the insurance sector from extreme weather events and the limitations of traditional catastrophe models and coarse global climate projections.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: From global climate model scales (identified as too coarse for risk pricing and local adaptation) to local-scale peril physical processes (e.g., wildfire, extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, hail) requiring high-resolution downscaling.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term climate projections and understanding hazard sensitivity to internal variability and different forcing pathways, relevant for current and emerging climate regimes and quantifying tail risks.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: The paper advocates for the use of high-resolution downscaling approaches, large ensemble modeling, and catastrophe risk analysis.
• Data sources: Discusses limitations of historical event statistics and global climate model simulations.

Main Results

• High-resolution downscaling can resolve local-scale peril physical processes (e.g., wildfire, extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, hail) largely unresolved by global climate models.
• Large ensembles provide a probabilistic understanding of hazard sensitivity to internal variability and different forcing pathways, crucial for quantifying tail risks in the insurance industry.
• Closer collaboration between atmospheric scientists, climate modelers, and industry practitioners is essential for mutual understanding of model assumptions, uncertainties, and data requirements.

Contributions

• Proposes a framework for integrating advanced climate science (high-resolution downscaling, large ensembles) with catastrophe risk analysis to improve climate-resilient risk management in the insurance sector.
• Emphasizes the critical need for interdisciplinary collaboration to address the limitations of current risk assessment methods and close the global protection gap.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Gensini2026Extreme,
  author = {Gensini, Vittorio A.},
  title = {Extreme events and the insurance industry in a changing climate},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae57c2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae57c2}
}